生猪期货与期权2025年5月报告-20250513

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In April 2025, the escalation of Sino-US tariffs put pressure on commodities, but agricultural products were relatively resilient, and the pig market was less directly affected. The far - end breeding cost was difficult to further reduce, and the spot price was stable due to the end of the seasonal off - season [3]. - In 2025, the pig slaughter volume increased year - on - year, but the pressure was not significant. The production efficiency of sows improved, but the overall increase in the number of breeding sows was limited [4]. - From May to June 2025, the probability of pig prices falling below the breeding cost is low. The feed cost is difficult to decline, and the upstream of the pig industry has not accumulated excessive risks [5]. - In the context of the expected increase in pig supply in the first half of 2025, attention should be paid to whether there are unexpected changes in the demand side. It is advisable to go long on pig futures when the price is below 13,000 points or buy call options near the cost [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of Pig Futures and Spot Prices in April 2025 - The escalation of Sino - US tariffs in April injected positive factors into the feed and breeding industry chain, with feed raw materials leading the rise in agricultural products [8]. - Pig futures prices opened high and closed low in April, and the 2505 contract made up for the premium to the spot. The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at historical lows, and the ratio of pig to feed on the disk is close to historical lows [10][12][15]. - In April, the price of 7 - kg weaned piglets stopped rising and adjusted, the price of fattening pigs fell, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs inverted. The price of feed oscillated and rose, and the terminal consumption improved marginally [17][20][21]. - The spot price of pigs in the second quarter is prone to seasonal strength, with an average increase probability of 62% - 82% from May to August in the past [39]. 2. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows has increased by about 5% compared with March 2024. The prices of culled sows and replacement sows remained stable in April [42][43]. - The production efficiency of single - sow has improved, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. Pig slaughter volume in May 2025 continued to increase due to the recovery of sow production capacity and improved production efficiency [45][49]. 3. Situation of Listed Pig Enterprises - In April, the slaughter volume of leading group companies decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales volume of piglets of listed companies decreased month - on - month, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high [54][55][58]. 4. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In April 2025, the price difference between standard and fat pigs rebounded rapidly, and the price of fat pigs was lower than that of standard pigs. The slaughter weight in May is likely to fall seasonally and is currently at a historical high [62][65]. - The slaughter volume in May decreased seasonally but was higher than the same period last year, and the supply of standard pigs in the market was sufficient. The import volume of pork and offal decreased from the high level, and the expected import volume of beef in the second quarter will decline month - on - month [68][71][74]. - The frozen product inventory rebounded slightly from the low level in April. The current monthly average profit level is at the historical median. In April, both purchased piglets and self - breeding and self - raising were profitable, but the profit level decreased slightly [77][80][81]. 5. Pig Futures Price and Market Outlook - In April, pig futures prices opened high and closed low, and near - month contracts were more resilient than far - month contracts. The pig index is at a historical low, and the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year [87][88]. - The 2505 contract rebounded from the low level in April to make up for the premium to the spot. The near - month contract is priced near the breeding cost, and the far - month contract has a low premium in the peak season [92][93][96]. - The basis is stronger than the same period in previous years. Attention should be paid to the regression mode of pig spot and futures in the second quarter. There may be opportunities for inter - month reverse arbitrage [99][102]. - In May, attention should be paid to the possible slaughter pressure when the weight is too high. The market volatility in the second quarter is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the systematic fluctuations in the agricultural product sector caused by Trump's tariff policy [107][108].