5月流动性月报：提支同业存款降价，货基如何应对？-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative, the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has significantly increased, with current deposits flowing out and time deposits remaining relatively stable. Money market funds need to address the issue of interest loss caused by the adjustment of time deposits exceeding the "restricted assets" [1][12]. - In April 2025, due to tariff upgrades, the central level of funds stepped down. The central bank's open - market operations were flexible, and the overall operation of funds was stable. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [4][71]. - In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio will offset the potential disturbances of fiscal factors to the capital market, and the pressure on the capital gap will be significantly alleviated. In the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 How to Respond to the Reduction of Early - Withdrawal Pricing for Money Market Funds? 3.1.1 Inter - bank Deposit Changes: Current Deposits Flow Out, Time Deposits Remain Relatively Stable - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative in November 2024, except for the increase in February driven by the transfer of current deposits to time deposits, inter - bank deposits have flowed out significantly in other months, and the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has increased. From December 2024 to March 2025, inter - bank deposits decreased by 3.3 trillion yuan [12]. - In terms of term structure, current deposits have flowed out significantly, while time deposits have remained relatively stable. The outflow of inter - bank deposits is mainly concentrated in large - scale banks, which is consistent with the distribution of current deposits. By comparing the first and second halves of 2024, the current deposits of important money market funds decreased from 4719 billion yuan to 1528 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 70%, while time deposits decreased from 7234 billion yuan to 6818 billion yuan, a decrease of only 6% [13]. 3.1.2 How Large is the Scale of Time Deposits of Money Market Funds Exceeding "Restricted Assets"? - The proportion of time deposits in the net asset value of important money market funds at the end of 2024 was about 30%. Based on the total net asset value of all money market funds in the first quarter of 2025, which was 13.3 trillion yuan, the scale of inter - bank time deposits was about 4 trillion yuan [19]. - With a 10% upper limit for restricted assets, the upper limit for inter - bank time deposits of money market funds with a maturity of more than 10 trading days is about 1.3 trillion yuan. In an extreme scenario, 2.7 trillion yuan of the 4 - trillion - yuan inter - bank time deposits need to be adjusted [19]. 3.1.3 How Do Money Market Funds Respond? - Response 1: Using the fund risk reserve to compensate for part of the interest loss from early - withdrawal. The lower limit of the fund company's risk reserve is about 320 billion yuan. The interest loss of 2.7 trillion yuan of early - withdrawal time deposits is about 37.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 12% of the risk reserve. However, due to the complex process, it can only cover a small part of the early - withdrawal deposits [20][22]. - Response 2: Rolling over 14 - day inter - bank time deposits. Since the beginning of this year, the term spread of inter - bank deposits with a maturity of less than 14 days has significantly narrowed. Generalized fund products may prefer short - term products with a maturity of less than 14 days [26]. 3.2 Review of the April Capital Market and Liquidity: Tariff Upgrades, Central Level of Funds Steps Down 3.2.1 Capital Market Review: The Fluctuation Range of Funds Widens - In April 2025, due to trade frictions, the central level of funds stepped down to 1.6 - 1.7%. The fluctuation ranges of overnight and 7 - day weighted prices increased compared with March. The spread between 7 - day and overnight funds was mostly around 5bp, with two days of inversion [28]. - In terms of capital operation, the central bank's open - market operations were flexible. In the early stage of the tariff conflict, the capital constraint was relaxed, and the central level of DR007 stepped down. In the middle and late stages, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase operations to hedge against disturbances, and the capital operation was generally stable. At the end of the month, the DR007 price slightly decreased and broke through 1.7% [33]. - In terms of capital stratification, the pressure on stratification was not significant in April, and the spread narrowed. The spread between R007 and DR007 and the spread between GC007 and DR007 both decreased [38]. 3.2.2 Liquidity Review: Limited Disturbances from Gaps, the Central Bank Increases Support, and the Capital Market Continues to Recover - Liquidity Aggregate: In April, the excess reserve level was low, with an excess reserve rate of about 1.0% and a narrow - sense excess reserve level of about 0.45% after deducting reverse - repurchases, which is a seasonally low level. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may increase the excess reserve rate by 0.5 percentage points, and the excess reserve level may return to the seasonal level [56]. - Open - Market Operations: In April, the central bank's open - market operations continued to increase. The reverse - repurchase balance first decreased and then increased. The MLF was over - renewed, with a net investment of 500 billion yuan, and the net investment of MLF was equal to the net withdrawal of outright reverse - repurchases. The outright reverse - repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 500 billion yuan [59][65][67]. 3.3 April Monetary Policy Tracking: The Goal of "Stabilizing Growth" Takes Precedence, and Double Reductions are Implemented in May - In April 2025, the central bank focused more on "stabilizing growth" on the basis of the "moderately loose" policy tone, and the central level of funds stepped down. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [71]. - After the tariff upgrade in early April, the central bank supported Huijin Company to increase its holdings of stock ETFs and provided sufficient re - loans. In the middle and late April, the central bank's OMO changed from net withdrawal to net investment to hedge against various disturbances. At the end of April, the MLF was over - renewed, and the Politburo meeting continued the "moderately loose" tone. On May 7, the central bank announced the simultaneous implementation of the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate [71][74]. 3.4 May Gap Prediction: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio is Implemented, and the Capital Expectation is Eased 3.4.1 Rigid Gap: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Releases Excess Reserves, and it is a Big Month for the Maturity of Outright Reverse - Repurchases - In May, as it is a small month for general deposits, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of excess reserves. The maturity scale of MLF is 125 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of outright reverse - repurchases is 900 billion yuan [78]. 3.4.2 Exogenous Shocks: The Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits on Excess Reserves is Small - In May, cash inflows may supplement about 60 billion yuan, and non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement about 12 billion yuan of excess reserves [81]. 3.4.3 Fiscal Factors: The Issuance of Government Bonds Accelerates, and the Tax Payment Scale is Relatively Large - In May, the net financing scale of government bonds may rise to about 1.68 trillion yuan, and the tax payment scale is relatively large. The reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release more than one trillion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity, and the payment and tax payment are mainly short - term capital disturbances, so the capital expectation may tend to ease [85]. 3.4.4 Comprehensive Judgment: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Stabilizes the Disturbances from Payments, and the Capital Expectation is Eased - Overall, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of liquidity, and cash inflows and non - financial institution deposits will slightly supplement liquidity. The maturity of 900 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF requires attention to the central bank's hedging tools. The absorption of liquidity by government deposits may be about 600 billion yuan. After the implementation of the double - reduction policy, the capital expectation has been significantly eased, and in the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [89][94].