粕类日报：新作需求良好，盘面震荡回落-20250513

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "粕类日报 2025年5月13日" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] - Date: May 13, 2025 [4] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean futures showed a strong trend, driven by improved macro - situation and a favorable monthly supply - demand report. Domestic futures weakened, influenced by supply pressure. Soybean meal futures were stronger than rapeseed meal futures. The decline in soybean meal spot prices had a negative impact on rapeseed meal, along with policy changes in rapeseed meal. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillated slightly, driven by the single - side market [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Soybean Market - Near - term pressure is limited. As of the week ending May 1, soybean export sales were 376,700 tons. March's crushing data was average, but subsequent demand is good, with no obvious pressure in the US. Brazil's selling pressure has decreased, and as of the week ending May 10, the harvesting progress was 98.5%, higher than last year and the five - year average. Crushing data is good, providing support. The near - term support for the international soybean market remains, and attention should be paid to subsequent balance sheet adjustments. In the long - term, the good demand for new - crop US soybeans supports the market, but exports are highly uncertain [5]. Domestic Market - Recently, the domestic spot supply is still tight. Based on the current operating rate, downstream提货 has improved significantly. With low inventory, there is some support, but as supply continues to increase, pressure is expected. As of May 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, the operating rate was 51.89%, soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons (a 12.7% increase from last week and a 27.79% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons (a 23.26% increase from last week and an 81.9% decrease year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has been strong recently, driven by the strong near - term soybean meal spot. However, as soybean meal pressure increases, rapeseed meal is expected to weaken. As of the week ending May 9, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 159,500 tons, the operating rate was 42.51%, rapeseed inventory was 200,000 tons (a decrease of 68,000 tons from last week), and rapeseed meal inventory was 36,000 tons (an increase of 21,500 tons from last week) [6][7]. Group 4: Macro - analysis - The main impact on the market is the joint statement. Both China and the US postponed the imposition of tariffs and reduced current tariffs. However, the soybean tariff is in Announcement No. 2, so China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans. The macro - impact on soybean meal is complex, and the driving force is expected to be limited [7]. Group 5: Logical Analysis - Today, the soybean meal futures declined significantly. As the operating rate of domestic oil mills increases, the tight spot supply has eased. With the increase in soybean arrivals and the operating rate, the supply will continue to improve. The market's response to the monthly supply - demand report is weak. The pricing center of soybean meal is still in South America, where the pressure is significant, so the futures may face further pressure. The market focus on rapeseed meal is on future supply. As soybean meal prices fall, the demand for rapeseed meal may weaken, limiting the positive impact of supply. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillate. The soybean meal monthly spread is mainly affected by the single - side market, while the rapeseed meal monthly spread faces downward pressure due to the improvement in future supply [8]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Bearish trend - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM09 spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9] Group 7: Price and Spread Data Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean meal: Contract 01 closed at 2937 (down 11), 05 at 2746, 09 at 2886 (down 22). Spot basis in Tianjin was 180 (down 70), in Dongguan 150 (down 20), in Zhangjiagang 90 (down 10), and in Rizhao 100 (down 10). - Rapeseed meal: Contract 01 closed at 2295 (down 17), 05 at 2410 (down 24), 09 at 2487 (down 57). Spot basis in Nantong was - 67 (up 77), in Guangdong - 117 (up 7), and in Guangxi - 137 (up 7) [4]. Monthly Spreads - Soybean meal: 59 spread was - 140 (up 6), 91 spread was - 51 (down 11), 15 spread was 191 (up 5). - Rapeseed meal: 59 spread was - 77 (up 33), 91 spread was 192 (down 40), 15 spread was - 115 (up 7) [4]. Cross - variety Spreads - The difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures for contract 05 was 336 (up from 328), for contract 09 was 399 (up from 364). The oil - meal ratio for contract 05 was 2.896 (up from 2.886). The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 748 (down 92), between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 966 (down 32), and between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 108 (unchanged) [4]. Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - For Brazilian soybeans arriving in June, the CNF was 133, CBOT was 1067, the exchange rate was 7.0718. The soybean meal price was 2886, the soybean oil price was 7792. The盘面 pressing profit was 56.99 (down 32.30 from yesterday), and the spot pressing profit was - 123.81 (down 32.30 from yesterday). - For Brazilian soybeans arriving in July, the CNF was 148, CBOT was 1067, the exchange rate was 7.2303. The盘面 pressing profit was 37.21 (down 20.99 from yesterday), and the spot pressing profit was 11.91 (down 20.99 from yesterday). - For Brazilian soybeans arriving in August, the CNF was 173, CBOT was 1051, the exchange rate was 7.2303. The盘面 pressing profit was - 35.32 (down 12.15 from yesterday), and the spot pressing profit was - 35.32 (down 12.15 from yesterday) [10]