Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish outlook [3] Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The market quickly reversed all the gains, and the closing price was basically the same as the starting point of the previous day. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen, and there is no sign of production cuts in nickel iron. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly. The demand for nickel is under pressure, and the profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly. The report suggests rolling short nickel in the range of 120,000 - 127,000 [1][2]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The demand peak season is coming to an end, and the demand for zinc is expected to weaken. The report suggests waiting for opportunities to short zinc [3][4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may lead to a shortage of global nickel ore supply and price increases. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, mainly supplying smelters in industrial parks such as Morowali and Weda Bay. The ban may cause supply chain disruptions for these smelters [1]. Zinc - In April 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.872 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The Philippines is out of the rainy season, and the shipping volume is expected to increase. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen. The profit of nickel iron produced from medium-grade nickel ore is close to the break-even point, but the profit of nickel iron produced from low-grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly [1]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk, but it is still not low. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive after considering by-product income. The possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the overall supply is expected to loosen [3]. Demand Nickel and Stainless Steel - The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both of which have decreased compared with the previous period. The profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly, but the production volume has remained high. The possibility of production cuts in stainless steel is small [2]. Zinc - The demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers for production is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while the social inventory has started to accumulate, indicating that the terminal demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. The demand for die-casting alloys has not improved significantly, and manufacturers are producing on demand. The supply of zinc oxide is relatively sufficient, and there is no sign of an increase in the operating rate. The overall demand for zinc is expected to weaken [4].
盘面证伪禁矿消息，沪镍维持滚动做空
Xin Da Qi Huo·2025-05-13 14:31