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中美显著下调互加的额外关税点评:特朗普_对等关税”最低税率或是10%
Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-05-13 14:33

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The US will impose approximately 30% tariffs on China, which includes a 20% fentanyl tariff and a 10% minimum baseline tariff as part of the "reciprocal tariff" policy[8] - China will respond with a 10% tariff on US goods as a reaction to the 10% reciprocal tariff[15] Group 2: Economic Impact - The implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff could lead to a decrease in US imports by approximately $652.4 billion[28] - The US could potentially collect around $264.4 billion in additional tariff revenue from the 10% baseline tariff[35] - If a 30% tariff is applied, US imports from China could decline by nearly $150 billion, exceeding a 30% drop[30] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, the US capital markets experienced a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and currency[15] - The higher tariff rates were ultimately suspended due to negative feedback from the capital markets, with only the 10% baseline tariff being implemented[30]