美中关税降级的缘起、影响和后续

Tariff Reduction Overview - The recent US-China tariff reduction has decreased tariffs from 125% to 34%, with a 90-day suspension on 24% of tariffs, leaving a remaining 10% in place[2] - The overall tariff level between the US and China has dropped by 91 percentage points, with potential further negotiations on the 20% tariff related to fentanyl[3] Economic Impact - The US's total tariff on China will decrease to approximately 40%, while the global tariff will fall to 15-17% during the 90-day exemption period[5] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to lower the drag on US economic growth to 1-1.5 percentage points and may increase core inflation by 1-1.5 percentage points[7] Trade Dynamics - The short-term pressure on Chinese exports is expected to significantly decrease, potentially leading to a surge in exports during the 90-day window[8] - The global trade volume may decline by 2-4 percentage points, which is less severe than previous estimates of over 5% due to tariff impacts[5] Future Projections - The US is likely to maintain a tactical retreat on tariff issues, with the possibility of revisiting them in 1-2 quarters[14] - The trend of "de-dollarization" remains unchanged, with Asian assets, particularly those from China and Japan, expected to receive higher relative allocations[15]