食品饮料中外复盘系列：复盘1930s美国加征关税后食品饮料表现

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the food and beverage industry. Core Insights - The high tariffs imposed in the 1930s catalyzed the economic downturn in the United States, leading to a significant decline in consumer demand, influenced by falling income and credit availability [10][34]. - The food sector demonstrated resilience during the bear market from August 1929 to June 1932, with a decline of 72.6%, compared to a 86.0% drop in the S&P 500, indicating its defensive characteristics [19][20]. - Post-1932, the food industry saw a recovery, with prices increasing by 132.3% compared to 121.4% for the S&P 500, showcasing the sector's potential for excess returns [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction and Summary - The 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act raised the average tariff rate in the U.S. to a historical high of 59%, triggering a global trade war and exacerbating the decline in domestic demand [10][44]. 2. Review of 1920-1930s America: High Tariffs as a Catalyst for Recession - The economic boom of the 1920s was followed by the Great Depression, with high tariffs contributing to the decline in agricultural exports and domestic prices [34][44]. - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was intended to protect domestic agriculture but led to retaliatory tariffs from over 40 countries, resulting in a 46.2% drop in U.S. exports from 1929 to 1932 [52]. 3. Market Performance: The 1930 Tariff Act Accelerated Stock Market Decline - The food sector's performance during the bear market was relatively stable, with a smaller decline compared to the broader market, indicating its defensive nature [19][20]. - The food sector's resilience was attributed to the stable performance of leading companies amidst declining consumer demand [19][20]. 4. Industry Level: The Emergence of the U.S. Food Industry - The food industry faced significant challenges post-1929, with a notable decline in consumer demand, but leading companies like Coca-Cola maintained steady revenue growth [23][24]. - Coca-Cola benefited from the shift towards carbonated beverages as substitutes for alcoholic drinks, while Hershey's faced pressure on its revenue due to the economic downturn [24][26]. 5. Company Performance - Coca-Cola's gross margin improved by 2.9 percentage points from 1929 to 1931, driven by new product launches and declining raw material costs [24][26]. - Hershey's gross margin increased by 10.4 percentage points during the same period, despite facing revenue pressures [24][26].