苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250513

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The short - term macro atmosphere has improved, and due to device maintenance disturbances, the futures market has rapidly recovered upwards. The future market trend depends on two aspects: whether there will be a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there will be new export orders for textile and clothing (end - products of caprolactam) and white goods (end - products of styrene); also, whether the gasoline - blending demand in the US will improve and whether the shutdown and production cuts of its disproportionation devices will divert China's pure benzene import sources, leading to a reduction in the supply of the domestic pure benzene market [3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7100 - 7700 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.25% and a historical percentile of 93.8% over three years [2]. - For inventory management when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2506, sell, 25%, entry range: 7550 - 7650) to lock in profits and sell call options (EB2506C7800, sell, 50%, entry range: 80 - 140) to reduce costs [2]. - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2506, buy, 50%, entry range: 7450 - 7550) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (EB2506P7000, sell, 75%, entry range: 10 - 30) [2]. Core Contradictions - The future market trend needs to focus on whether there is a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there are new export orders for related end - products; also, the improvement of US gasoline - blending demand and the impact of its device shutdowns on China's pure benzene imports [3]. Bullish Factors - As of May 12, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.67 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons (-17.23%) from the previous period, with continued destocking and tightening of spot liquidity [4]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks progressed smoothly, with a larger - than - expected tariff reduction after the first round of consultations, leading to a rebound in pure benzene and styrene spot prices and increased trading volume [4]. - There were rumors that Hengli's cracking device had a sudden failure, causing its 720,000 - ton styrene device to be overhauled one month earlier, which would intensify the shortage of styrene if true [4]. Bearish Factors - A large amount of European pure benzene is expected to arrive in Northeast Asia from late May, and the import volume of pure benzene is expected to remain high from May to June [5]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, with many device overhauls planned in downstream caprolactam and aniline in May, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [5]. - The invisible inventory in the benzene industry chain continues to accumulate, and the finished - product inventory in the 3S segment remains high [5][7]. Price Changes - On May 13, 2025, the prices of pure benzene and styrene in various markets generally increased compared with the previous day. For example, the price of pure benzene in the East China market increased by 75 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene in the East China market increased by 305 yuan/ton [8][9]. - The basis of styrene in different periods also changed. For example, the basis of East China - EB05 decreased by 307 yuan, while the basis of East China - EB06 increased by 75 yuan [7].