Donghai Securities·2025-05-13 12:25Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the dairy sector driven by favorable policies related to fertility, which are expected to boost demand. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to improve, leading to stabilization in milk prices [4]. - In the liquor segment, the focus is on high-end products and regional leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. The report notes that the white liquor sector is currently experiencing a bottoming out in valuations, with expectations for demand recovery supported by policy measures [4]. - The snack food sector continues to show high growth potential, with recommendations for companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Food. The report also emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant supply chain, suggesting investments in companies like Anjifood and Qianwei Yangchun [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.76% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [5][10]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included health products and baked goods, which increased by 5.09% and 4.25%, respectively [10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The report provides detailed pricing data for key liquor products, noting that the price of the 2024 Moutai original bottle is 2,190 yuan, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [20]. - In the beer sector, production for March 2025 reached 312.8 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 2% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as of April, with overall food and beverage prices showing a slight increase [55]. 4. Core Company Updates - Qingdao Beer plans to acquire 100% equity of Jimo Huangjiu from Xinhua Jin Group and Lujin Group for 666 million yuan [56]. - Baba Foods announced a cash dividend of 0.80 yuan per share, totaling 192 million yuan [56].