五矿期货农产品早报-20250514

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with expected lower production, stable exports and domestic consumption. However, short - term supply of US soybeans and domestic soybeans is expected to be large, and the prices are likely to be volatile in the short term, requiring additional stimuli for further upward movement [2][5]. - For palm oil, the significant increase in production and inventory in April puts downward pressure on prices in the medium - term. But the rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies provide some support. In the short term, prices may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the upcoming RVO rule [6][9]. - For sugar, the supply shortage situation is expected to turn into a slight surplus in the 2025/26 season. The price of raw sugar may hit a new low in the second and third quarters, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to weaken later [10][11]. - For cotton, the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term prices, and future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply pressure is large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - For pigs, the spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meadow - Important Information: Overnight US soybeans rose due to the easing of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimated a slight reduction in the new US soybean production in the 25/26 season, stable crushing volume, a slight decline in exports, and a slight reduction in inventory. The expected RVO plan from the EPA in two weeks also supports US soybeans. The opening rate of domestic soybean oil mills increased, leading to a slight decline in the domestic soybean meal spot price. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively [2]. - Trading Strategy: Near - term, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to have large supplies but low valuations, so they are likely to be volatile. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli from biodiesel and production [5]. Oils - Important Information: The MPOB report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in April rose to 1.86 million tons. From May 1 - 5, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased significantly. From May 1 - 10, the export volume decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month. The rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies support the price, but if the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, the price will be under pressure. The industry association's request to greatly increase RVO will boost the valuation of US soybean oil [6]. - Trading Strategy: The downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production will put downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - term. However, the upcoming RVO rule may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short term, so the prices may be volatile or slightly bullish [9]. Sugar - Important Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Tuesday. The analysis agency Green Pool estimated a slight surplus of 1.15 million tons in the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with an expected 5.3% increase in production and a 0.95% increase in consumption [10]. - Trading Strategy: The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil will ease the supply shortage. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but it is likely to weaken later [11]. Cotton - Important Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell on Tuesday. The USDA monthly report was bearish for US cotton but showed a 710,000 - ton reduction in global production, mainly from China and Australia. As of May 11, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [13]. - Trading Strategy: The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term cotton prices. The domestic cotton spinning industry has entered the off - season, with weak consumption and low imports, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [14]. Eggs - Important Information: Most egg prices in the country rose, and the downstream sales were mostly stable. Most traders' confidence in the future market declined [16]. - Trading Strategy: The post - holiday inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure was large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - Important Information: The domestic pig price was mainly stable, with some areas showing a weak trend. The market sales were average, and there was a game between supply and demand [19]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [20].