宝城期货国债期货早报-20250514

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2506 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with the overall view being "range - bound oscillation" due to the fulfillment of interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". In the short term, the upside and downside space for bond futures is limited, and they are expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2506, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. The core logic is that the interest - rate cut expectation has been fulfilled, and it is in short - term range - bound consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that in the long - term, due to large external uncertainties, the central bank needs to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a solid policy basis for the upward movement of bonds. Currently, the implied interest - rate cut expectation in bond futures prices is low, indicating strong bottom support. However, after the release of the China - US economic and trade talks joint statement, the short - term risk of the tariff war has eased, the Fed's hawkish stance has put pressure on the exchange - rate spread, and the central bank's recent interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts require further observation of macroeconomic indicators to determine the pace and intensity of monetary easing, resulting in limited upward momentum for bond futures [4].