宝城期货甲醇早报-20250514

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation and weakness, and an intraday view of oscillation and strength [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant increase of 352,000 tons compared with 1.7058 million tons in the same period last year [5] - On the night of Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed up 2.10% to 2,329 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Supply and Demand - Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with the restart of multiple plants before the festival, the supply pressure has risen again and reached a new weekly production high [5] - The downstream demand has improved, the futures market profit of methanol - to - olefins has recovered, which helps boost the port's purchasing enthusiasm, and the port inventory has been smoothly reduced [5] Macro Factor - Against the background of real progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [5]