银河期货玻璃期货日报-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass prices continue to decline rapidly due to cost collapse and weakening expected demand. With the arrival of the off - season from June to September, the unsold inventory from the peak season will bring significant pressure, and manufacturers' operating pressure will increase. The current prices still have room to fall to promote market - based industry clearance. Policy support for post - real - estate cycle products is limited, and downstream demand is not expected to improve throughout the year due to cyclical factors. Short - term prices are weak with limited rebound potential [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Basic Data - Spot Market: On May 13, 2025, the prices of some glass products in the spot market decreased compared to the previous week. For example, the price of Hubei large - size glass decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 1120 yuan/ton, and the price of Shahe large - size glass decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton [3]. - Futures Market: On May 13, 2025, FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all declined compared to the previous day and the previous week. The main contract's open interest increased by 127,714 hands to 1,463,489 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 18,083 hands to 1,639,503 hands. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10 to 2,370 [3]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts increased compared to the previous week. The spread of FG01 - 05 increased by 3 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton, the spread of FG05 - 09 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, and the spread of FG09 - 01 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly data shows that the daily melting volume of glass remained unchanged at 155,125 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The operating rate remained at 75%, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. The inventory increased by 4.0% to 67.56 million heavy boxes, with a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The profit from natural gas as fuel decreased by 379.0% year - on - year to - 147.85 yuan/ton, the profit from coal as fuel decreased by 17.3% year - on - year to 147.23 yuan/ton, and the profit from petroleum coke as fuel decreased by 113.2% year - on - year to - 44.6 yuan/ton [3]. Part 2: Market Judgment - Market Situation: According to Longzhong statistics, the market price of Shahe large - size glass decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, the market price of Hubei large - size glass decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 1120 yuan/ton, the market price of Guangdong large - size glass remained unchanged at 1370 yuan/ton, and the market price of Zhejiang large - size glass remained unchanged at 1400 yuan/ton [5]. - Important Information: The domestic float glass market prices have partially declined, and the trading volume is average. Different regions have different price trends, with some prices decreasing and some remaining stable. There is also information about Sino - US economic and trade relations and the fentanyl issue [6]. - Logical Analysis: Glass prices are accelerating their decline due to cost collapse and weakening expected demand. Hubei manufacturers in Central China have offered discounts, and the spot price has decreased to narrow the basis. The glass output has slightly decreased to 155,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. With the arrival of the off - season, manufacturers will face greater pressure, and the current prices still have room to fall [6]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, short - term prices are weak with limited rebound potential; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including glass basis, 9 - 1 spread, number of warehouse receipts, main contract open interest, main contract trading volume, daily melting volume, manufacturer inventory, apparent demand, and profit with different fuels, showing the historical data trends from 2022 to 2025 [8][10].