阻碍黄金继续上涨的理由

Core Viewpoints - The medium to long-term trend for gold may still be upward, but the short-term momentum for price increases has weakened [2][4] - Discrepancies in trading perspectives have increased, with gold prices having risen over 100% since November 2021, reaching historical peak levels when adjusted for M2 [2][8] - The narrative of "dollar credit collapse" driving gold prices has been interrupted, as historical patterns show that strong dollar conditions often lead to declines in gold prices [3][19] Trade Agreements and Economic Factors - Recent trade agreements, including the US-UK and US-China agreements, have reduced uncertainty and are expected to positively impact the US economy [4][22] - The US fiscal situation is improving, with tariff revenues accumulating to $13.5 billion since April 2, and projected reductions in the fiscal deficit rate from 6.2% to 5.8% for 2024 [4][26] - The Federal Reserve is approaching a potential interest rate cut, which may strengthen the dollar and further diminish gold's appeal [5][29] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold have been a reason for price increases, but there are inherent risks, including the potential for reduced monetary supply if gold prices fall [31][33] - The increase in global gold reserves since 2008 has not consistently led to sustained price increases, indicating that central bank purchases alone cannot guarantee upward trends in gold prices [31][33]