国泰君安期货-LLDPE：短期偏强，中期震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - LLDPE is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. Considering factors such as continuous commissioning of new production capacity, weak demand, and falling costs, there is still pressure on the polyethylene trend in the medium - term [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7187, with a daily increase of 2.34%. The trading volume was 455,073 and the open interest changed by - 3834. The 09 contract basis was 4 (previous day was 3), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 6 (previous day was 2) [3] - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China yesterday were 7230, 7300, and 7450 yuan/ton respectively, compared with 7160, 7230, and 7360 yuan/ton the day before [3] 2. Spot News - The LLDPE market price increased slightly, with a price range of 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The linear futures fluctuated at a high level, boosting market sentiment. Most petrochemical ex - factory prices were stable today. Traders tentatively raised prices, but the enthusiasm of end - users to purchase improved limitedly. They purchased raw materials according to orders, and the actual transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis [3] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Macro - aspect: The temporary reconciliation between China and the US has a positive impact on market sentiment [4] - Supply - demand: In the short - term, the rush to export plastic products supports the market, making the short - term polyethylene trend strong. However, there is still significant pressure from the commissioning of polyethylene supply this year, and the market may still tend to short polyethylene profits later. In 2024, the value of Chinese plastic products exported to the US accounted for 16.75% of the total plastic exports, and this proportion has been declining in recent years. After the US imposes additional tariffs, the downward trend of Chinese plastic product exports to the US may be more obvious. In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE devices is 2.55 million tons, and the supply pressure is still large. Although the maintenance volume increased from May to June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, affected by the trade war, the peak season for agricultural films has passed, and the demand will continue to decline later. The demand for packaging films is average. Therefore, although downstream factories replenish inventory at low prices periodically, the continuous replenishment strength is insufficient, making it difficult to lead to obvious destocking of polyethylene and form a positive feedback [4] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6]