工业硅、多晶硅日评：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, trading between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Due to factors such as delivery and supply - side reform news, the polysilicon price has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the weak fundamentals conflict with delivery issues, leading to increased price fluctuations and a stable - to - rising price trend [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Industrial Silicon: The average price of industrial silicon grade 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,000 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.08% to 8,230 yuan/ton. The price of grade 553 in Sichuan decreased by 1.11% to 8,900 yuan/ton, while other regions remained unchanged [1]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feed material, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.47% to 38,270 yuan/ton [1]. - Silicon Wafer: The prices of various types of silicon wafers, including N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, N - type 183mm, P - type 210mm, and P - type 182mm, remained unchanged [1]. - Battery Chip: The prices of single - crystal PERC battery chips M10 - 182mm and G12 - 210mm remained flat [1]. - Component: The prices of single - sided and double - sided single - crystal PERC components of different sizes remained unchanged [1]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained flat [1]. Industry News - On April 29, 2025, SEG Solar's battery chip intelligent manufacturing plant in Indonesia held a ceremony for the first chip offline. The average conversion efficiency of the N - type battery chips reached 26.4%. The initial phase plans 4 production lines with an annual capacity of 2GW, and it is expected to expand to 5GW in the future [1]. - On May 9, Hainan Power Grid and other units announced that the total open - capacity of distributed photovoltaic power grids in Hainan Province in the first quarter of 2025 was 1GW, mainly concentrated in 7 cities and counties [1]. - On May 12, the Shanxi Energy Bureau announced the list of the first batch of wind and photovoltaic power generation projects to be abolished in 2025, with a total scale of 591,947 kilowatts, including 10 photovoltaic projects with a total capacity of 487.95MW and 4 wind power projects with a total capacity of 104MW [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial Silicon: In April, the production of industrial silicon decreased to about 300,000 tons due to production cuts in Xinjiang. In May, production is expected to increase steadily but with limited growth. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but face weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on - demand. It is expected that the operating range will be 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, and some new production capacities may be put into operation, with an expected output of less than 100,000 tons. The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components. Due to delivery and supply - side reform news, the price has rebounded. In the short - term, price fluctuations will intensify, and long positions can be considered [1].