中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market may return to fundamental trading after the initial progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. After this week, demand may enter a seasonal off - peak, while steel mills may maintain high molten iron production, leading to a looser supply - demand situation and a risk of intensifying supply - demand contradictions in steel products [1][4]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - demand structure is strong, the terminal demand may weaken marginally, and the contradiction with high molten iron production is gradually accumulating, which may put pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1][7]. - For coking coal and coke, even with high molten iron production, they remain weak. If molten iron production peaks, they will face greater pressure, and the supply is relatively loose [1][10][13]. - For ferroalloys, the port inventory of manganese ore is expected to rise, and the cost support for ferrosilicon is weakening, with relatively high inventory levels [1][16]. Summary by Variety Steel Products Threaded Steel - Variety View: The market may return to fundamental trading. After this week, demand may enter a seasonal off - peak, and steel mills may maintain high molten iron production, leading to a looser supply - demand situation and a risk of intensifying supply - demand contradictions [1][4]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Short - term is expected to be in a volatile pattern, but the medium - term is still considered weak [1][5]. - Price Range: [3070, 3130] [1]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Variety View: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased significantly, and inventory has risen. Exports are still high but may decline later [1][4]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Macro news has limited boosting effect. It will continue to be weak in the medium - term and may be in a volatile pattern in the short - term [1][5]. - Price Range: [3200, 3260] [1]. Iron Ore - Variety View: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel enterprise profits, and the supply - demand structure is currently strong. However, the terminal demand may weaken marginally, and the contradiction with high molten iron production is gradually accumulating, which may put pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1][7]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Participate in the short - term unilaterally and hold the inter - period positive spread [8]. - Price Range: [710, 750] [1]. Coke - Variety View: Even with high molten iron production, coke remains weak. If molten iron production peaks, it will face greater pressure. The supply is relatively loose, and it may enter a volatile market after continuous decline [1][10]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Volatile [11]. - Price Range: [1440, 1485] [1]. Coking Coal - Variety View: The delivery pressure makes the coking coal market re - evaluate the delivery cost. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand may peak. After continuous decline, it may enter a bottom consolidation phase in the short - term [1][13]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Volatile [14]. - Price Range: [850, 890] [1]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - Variety View: The long - term supply of manganese ore is recovering, and the port inventory is expected to rise. The industrial fundamentals need further improvement, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in low - cost areas. The cost support is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in the delivery warehouse has not been relieved [1][16]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: The rebound height may be limited due to weak fundamentals, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [17]. - Price Range: [5700, 5950] [1]. Ferrosilicon - Variety View: The cost support is weakening, the supply is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, but the inventory is relatively high. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed [1][16]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to operate within a range [17]. - Price Range: [5450, 5750] [1].