饲料养殖产业日报-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, with prices under pressure but limited decline due to the discounted futures price. Egg prices are supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. Oils have rebounded due to improved macro - environment and USDA report, but face supply pressure in the short - term and are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn prices are supported in the short - term and have upward drivers in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On May 14, spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and later supply will increase. Demand is limited, and the overall supply - demand game intensifies, with prices fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase from May to September 2024, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to wait for a rebound and short on the high side [1]. Eggs - On May 14, prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable. Short - term prices are supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase, and the 06 contract may face pressure if the festival effect is weak. The strategy is to short lightly on the rebound for the 06 contract and be bearish on 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - Palm Oil: MPOB April report is neutral - bearish, and May data shows high production and weak exports, with large inventory accumulation pressure in Malaysia. In China, inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May. The 07 contract faces pressure at 3900 - 4000 [4]. - Soybean Oil: The USDA May report is bullish, but the rise of US soybeans is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. - Rapeseed Oil: ICE rapeseed rebounds due to improved macro - environment and tight domestic supply. In China, inventory is at a high level, but if supply tightens, inventory is expected to decrease [6]. - Overall, oils rebound in May, but short - term supply pressure limits the rebound height. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to short cautiously after a rebound for 09 contracts and consider spreading strategies for bean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [7][8]. Soybean Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, but the upside is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and prices are expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to increased costs and weather disturbances. The strategy is to short on the high side for the 09 contract in the short - term and go long on the low side in the long - term [8]. Corn - On May 13, prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang were stable. Short - term supply is tight, supporting prices, but the upside may be limited. In the long - term, there are upward drivers, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range, and consider a 9 - 1 spread positive arbitrage [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, ICE rapeseed, and egg futures prices changed on May 13. Other varieties such as soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also had price fluctuations [10].