长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250514

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - PTA: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Range-bound oscillation [4] - Staple Fiber: Rebound from a low level [5] - Sugar: High-level oscillation [6] - Apple: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is influenced by policies, inventory, production, and international trade. Short and medium-term prices are expected to be strong due to tight domestic commercial inventory, but long-term prices may be restricted by high global production [1]. - PTA prices are driven up by factors such as improved macro conditions, inventory reduction, and strong downstream demand. The price is expected to continue rising, with attention on the 5,000 yuan/ton resistance level [2][4]. - Ethylene glycol prices are supported by cost and supply factors, and are expected to oscillate in the range of 4,100 - 4,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Staple fiber prices have rebounded due to rising raw material prices and reduced supply, but the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term due to the approaching off - season and the end of upstream device maintenance [5]. - Sugar prices are affected by international supply, domestic demand, and import policies. They are currently in a high - level oscillation, and the future trend depends on consumption and international sugar prices [6]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to reduced inventory and potential production reduction caused by weather factors [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Key Information - The State Council Tariff Commission has adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 has been reduced from 34% to 10%, and the 24% additional tariff has been suspended for 90 days. The measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 have been stopped [11]. - The US April unadjusted CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021. The core CPI remained flat at 2.8% year - on - year. Traders are betting on Fed rate cuts in September and October [11]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety Cotton - On May 13, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,384 yuan/ton, up 197 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,480 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton [11]. - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, a significant drop of 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line [11]. - In February, India imported about 49,000 tons of cotton, a 16.7% decrease from January and a 394.2% increase from the same period last year. As of now, the cumulative import in the 2024/25 season is 439,000 tons, a 403.4% increase from the same period last year [11]. PTA - As of the end of April, the average monthly PTA spot price was 4,439 yuan/ton, a decrease of 401 yuan/ton from the previous month. The average price difference between futures and spot in April was 88.89 yuan/ton, an increase of 73.31 yuan/ton from the previous month and 74.31 yuan/ton from the same period last year [13]. - Last week, the average weekly PTA production capacity utilization rate in China was 74.48%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week and a 1.25% increase from the same period last year [13]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate was 61.93%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. The utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.01%, a 2.06% decrease, and the utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 53.17%, a 3.53% increase [13]. - China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 549,700 tons, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week. The overall supply increased slightly, and the demand in other industries decreased slightly [13]. Staple Fiber - As of the 8th, the weekly production of Chinese polyester staple fiber was 164,400 tons, a 0.31% increase from the previous week. The average production capacity utilization rate was 86.94%, a 0.26% increase [13]. - As of the 8th, the average polyester staple fiber polymerization cost was 5,315.65 yuan/ton, a 0.84% increase from the previous week. The average cash flow of the polyester staple fiber industry was - 193.98 yuan/ton, a 31.58% decrease from the previous week [13]. Sugar - In the 2025/26 sugar season as of the first half of April, the cumulative crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 16.598 million tons, a 2.98% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 731,000 tons, a 1.25% increase [13]. - Ukraine has established a trade - complementary relationship with Côte d'Ivoire, exporting sugar and importing cocoa products and nuts [13]. - In the 2024/25 sugar season, Inner Mongolia's cumulative sugar production was 663,500 tons, an increase of 128,500 tons from the previous year. As of the end of April, the cumulative sugar sales were 536,400 tons, an increase of 99,800 tons, and the industrial inventory was 127,100 tons, an increase of 28,700 tons [13][16]. Apple - As of May 7, 2025, the inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 379,200 tons from the previous week and 811,300 tons from two weeks before the holiday. The current inventory is still at a five - year low [17]. - In Shandong, the price of 80 bagged late - Fuji apples was 3.80 - 4.00 yuan/jin (first and second - grade), and in Shaanxi, the price of semi - commercial apples over 70 was 4.70 - 4.80 yuan/jin [17].