豆粕日报：短期偏空震荡-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term bearish oscillation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase, and although the 10% tariff on US soybeans limits the actual negative impact on prices, the short - term bearish pattern dominates. Pay attention to US soybean planting weather and China - US progress [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: The short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. The short - term bearish pattern still dominates [1]. - Palm Oil: Short - term rebound. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase in April, and the Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [1]. - Cotton: Oscillating strongly. The China - US peace talks drive the rebound of US cotton prices, but the purchase increment space is limited. The domestic supply and demand situation is complex, with short - term support below 13,000 yuan strengthening, and caution is needed when chasing long positions in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Red Dates: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high - inventory pressure exists. The post - May Day downstream arrival and transaction have accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging, which supports the short - term disk [1]. - Live Pigs: Under pressure. The supply surplus is expected to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - International Situation: South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There is insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, but short - term lack of rain will not affect planting due to previous heavy rainfall. Pay attention to subsequent rainfall, and there may be insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - Domestic Situation: From May to July, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. With the resumption of post - holiday operations and soybean arrivals, the supply environment is gradually loosening, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are falling. As of May 9, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and oil - mill soybean inventory have increased [3]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,886 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Inventory and Supply: As of May 9, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased. The import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [8]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Inventory and Export: As of May 9, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased compared with the previous month. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [10]. - Market Performance: The domestic palm oil closed up the day before yesterday, and it is regarded as a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the gap resistance [1]. 3.4 Cotton - International Situation: As of the week of May 11, the US cotton planting rate was 28%. According to the USDA's May 25/26 annual forecast, the global production will decrease by 710,000 tons year - on - year, and consumption will increase by 304,000 tons. The ending inventory in the US, China, Brazil, and Australia will change differently [12]. - Domestic Situation: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 has increased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, but the tariff adjustment may drive up the demand for cotton [13]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.68%. The spot price also increased. The basis, cross - period spread, and other indicators have changed [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - Production Area and Inventory: In some southern Xinjiang production areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase from last week and still higher than the same period [16]. - Market Performance: The main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.06%. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, and the stocking is a short - term rebound [16]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Market Situation: The main contract Lh2509 remained stable. The domestic live pig spot price decreased slightly. In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in May will increase slightly, and the weight will also increase slightly. In the medium term, the third - quarter supply may increase, and in the long term, the supply in early next year may be slightly affected by the number of breeding sows [18]. - Supply and Demand: The supply surplus is expected to dominate the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The consumption side lacks continuous growth momentum [19].