Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. - Due to OPEC+ accelerating production increase in June and the steady growth of US shale oil production, the expectation of oil market supply surplus has increased. However, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may gradually strengthen, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite. The domestic crude oil futures price rose 1.92% to 482.5 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night, and the 2507 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation and strengthening trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Viewpoints - Short - term: The short - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation [1]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and weakening [1][5]. - Intraday: The intraday view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Fluctuation Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillation and weakening, an increase between 0 - 1% is oscillation and strengthening, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - Oscillation and strengthening/weakening are only applicable to intraday views, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Market Driving Logic - Supply side: OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in June, and US shale oil production is growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand side: As the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may strengthen, providing support for crude oil futures prices [5]. - Macro factor: The progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a 1.92% increase in domestic crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].
宝城期货原油早报-20250514
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-14 02:51