高盛：中国必需消费品-业绩发布后的三大关键议题；需求通缩压力持续下对利润率及产品周期的关注

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer staples sector, with a preference for Beverage, Pet Foods, Dairy, and Beer categories, highlighting strong potential for margin expansion and shareholder returns [13]. Core Insights - Consumption demand is stabilizing, with 1Q25 showing 4% sales growth and 5% net profit growth, indicating a gradual recovery despite lingering deflationary pressures [1][2]. - Key themes for 2025 include margin resilience, unique product cycles, and a focus on shareholder returns, as companies navigate a challenging macro environment [1][2][13]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with Food & Beverage and Pet Care sectors outperforming, while Condiments and Spirits lag behind [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Retail demand recovery is gradual, with basic consumer goods seeing normalizing shipment and improving inventory cycles into 2Q25 [11]. - Value-focused trends persist, with economists projecting 0% CPI growth for 2025, leading to conservative average selling price trends across staples [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - Increased competition is expected in consumer sectors, particularly in beverages and snacks, with companies focusing on margin expansion through efficiency measures [9][15]. - Top players are outperforming, indicating a trend towards market consolidation, while smaller players may still find growth opportunities in niche markets [9][10]. Financial Performance - The staples sector is currently trading at an average forward P/E of 20x, with a projected earnings CAGR of 13% from 2025 to 2027 [2][13]. - Key stock picks for 2Q include Tingyi, CR Beverage, Eastroc, and Yanker, all of which are expected to benefit from strong product cycles and margin expansion [13][15]. Sector Preferences - The report emphasizes a preference for Beverage due to its secular growth potential, followed by Pet Foods, Dairy, and Beer, with specific stock recommendations for each category [13][17].