贵金属日报：窄幅震荡-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term is still in a high - level oscillation. The resistance of London gold is in the 3440 - 3500 area, with strong support at 3200 and the first intraday resistance at 3300. The support of London silver is at 32, with resistances at 33.3, 33.7, and if it breaks through, it can reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Gold showed signs of stopping its decline. The US CPI being lower than expected in the evening slightly boosted precious metals prices, but the impact was weak and did not affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Technically, gold needs to focus on whether it can recover the 5 - day moving average. The surrounding US dollar index declined, the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated, and the US stock market showed mixed performance. Finally, the gold 2506 contract closed at $3254.5 per ounce, up 0.82%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $33.09 per ounce, up 1.43%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 767.68 yuan per gram, down 1.63%; the SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8245 yuan per kilogram, up 0.44% [2] 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 91.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 8.2%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 61.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 35.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 27.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 50%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 21.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.5%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's daily holdings decreased by 2.58 tons to 936.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's daily holdings decreased by 29.7 tons to 13999.75 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory increased by 7.2 tons to 932.2 tons daily; as of the week ending April 30, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 52.2 tons to 1574.3 tons weekly [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - The US unadjusted core CPI annual rate in April was 2.8%, in line with market expectations and at the lowest level since March 2021. The seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate in April was 0.2%, lower than the market - expected 0.3%. This week's data to focus on include US retail sales on Thursday evening and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index on Friday evening. In terms of events, at 20:40 on Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell will give an opening speech at an event. The Fed will hold its second Thomas Laubach Research Conference this week, and US President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main continuous contract was at 767.68 yuan per gram, down 4.6 yuan or 0.6%. SGX gold TD was at 763.4 yuan per gram, up 5.25 yuan or 0.69%. CME gold main contract was at $3254.5 per ounce, up $12.7 or 0.39%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was at 8219 yuan per kilogram, down 13 yuan or 0.16%. SGX silver TD was at 8214 yuan per kilogram, up 90 yuan or 1.11%. CME silver main contract was at $33.09 per ounce, up $0.295 or 0.9%. SHFE - TD gold was at 4.28 yuan per gram, down 9.85 yuan or 69.71%. SHFE - TD silver was at 5 yuan per kilogram, down 103 yuan or 500%. CME gold - silver ratio was 98.353, down 0.4974 or 0.5% [5][6] 3.5 Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 17238 kilograms, unchanged with a 0% change. CME gold inventory was 1221.451 tons, up 4.77 tons or 0.39%. SHFE gold holdings were 214581 lots, unchanged with a 0% change. SPDR gold holdings were 936.51 tons, down 2.58 tons or 0.27%. SHFE silver inventory was 932.184 tons, up 7.231 tons or 0.78%. CME silver inventory was 15660.0249 tons, down 38.5169 tons or 0.25%. SGX silver inventory was 1574.34 tons, down 52.14 tons or 3.21%. SHFE silver holdings were 188738 lots, unchanged with a 0% change. SLV silver holdings were 13999.749702 tons, down 29.6975 tons or 0.21% [17][18] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 100.9672, down 0.8197 or 0.81%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.2017, up 0.0045 or 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42410.1 points, up 1160.72 points or 2.81%. WTI crude oil spot was at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.78%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9502 per ton, up $63 or 0.67%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.45%, up 0.08 or 1.83%. The 10Y US real interest rate was 2.17%, up 0.01 or 0.46%. The 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.47%, down 0.02 or 4.08% [22]