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五矿期货文字早评-20250514
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-14 03:22
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment impact of current tariff policies has weakened. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically. For stock index futures trading, it is suggested to buy IF long positions on dips, and no arbitrage opportunities are recommended for now [4]. - The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the short - term market risk preference has increased, so the bond market faces certain adjustment pressure. However, considering the decline in capital interest rates after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the short - end bonds still have cost - effectiveness. The long - end bonds may face adjustment pressure due to short - term tariff changes and supply pressure, and opportunities after the correction should be awaited [6]. - Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend in the short term due to the hawkish Fed monetary policy expectations and the release of tariff risks. Gold should wait for further correction before going long, and silver is recommended to be on the sidelines for now [8]. - For most metals, although the Sino - US negotiation has achieved certain results, the current tariff level is still high, and the market sentiment may be limited. The supply and demand fundamentals of each metal vary, and the price trends are also different. Some metals may face short - term upward pressure, while others may have downward risks [10][11][12]. - For black building materials, the reduction of Sino - US trade tariffs may boost market confidence, but the long - term demand is still under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each variety also need to be closely monitored [22]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some products are expected to have price declines due to increased supply and weak demand, while others may have short - term trading opportunities due to specific events [39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price trends of different products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. Some products are expected to be stable or have short - term fluctuations, while others may face downward pressure [50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.12%, and other major indexes showed different trends. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1291.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The sentiment impact of tariff policies has weakened. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically. The unilateral strategy is to buy IF long positions on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the TL, T, and TS main contracts rose, while the TF main contract fell slightly. The US may pass a large - scale tax - cut bill, and the US CPI data in April was lower than expected [5]. - The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the short - term bond market faces adjustment pressure. However, the short - end bonds still have cost - effectiveness, and the long - end bonds may face adjustment pressure and opportunities after the correction should be awaited [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver, showed different degrees of increase. The US CPI data in April was lower than expected, but there are still potential inflation risks [7]. - Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend in the short term. Gold should wait for further correction before going long, and silver is recommended to be on the sidelines for now [8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - The US inflation data was weaker than expected, and the Sino - US tariff adjustment details were announced. LME copper rose 1.29% to $9624/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipts increased [10]. - The Sino - US negotiation results were better than expected, but the current tariff level is still high. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper is tight, and the consumption shows signs of weakening. The short - term copper price is difficult to continue rising [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation sentiment was positive, and the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum rose 0.95% to $2493/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,155 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased [11]. - The Sino - US negotiation results were better than expected, and the short - term inventory decline supports the aluminum price. However, the seasonal weak demand may limit the upward space of the aluminum price [11]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 0.69% to 22,228 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, and the zinc ingot inventory showed a small increase [12]. - The zinc concentrate is in surplus, and the short - term near - end is relatively strong. However, the downstream procurement sustainability is limited, and the zinc price may have a downward risk in the medium term [12]. 3.2.4 Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.17% to 16,965 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell. The lead concentrate port inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory increased [13][14]. - The lead concentrate is in surplus, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side shock. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate in a range of 16,300 - 17,800 yuan [14]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Shanghai nickel rose 0.20% to 124,430 yuan/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.25% to $15,745/ton. The cost side is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak [15]. - The nickel price should be treated with a bearish view. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to run in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of $15,000 - 16,300/ton [15]. 3.2.6 Tin - Shanghai tin fell 0.43% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The supply side is expected to loosen, and the demand side is affected by tariffs [16]. - If the downstream demand remains weak, the tin price may decline. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan, and the overseas LME tin in the range of $30,000 - 33,000 [16]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium fell 0.26%, and the LC2507 contract fell 1.28%. The macro - sentiment improvement did not continuously boost the lithium price, and the cost support decreased, and the inventory was high [17]. - The lithium price rebound faces resistance. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is expected to run in the range of 62,500 - 63,800 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.8 Alumina - The alumina index remained flat at 2840 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. The spot prices in some regions rose, and the overseas price remained unchanged. The supply side is disturbed, and the cost support decreases [18]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to run in the range of 2650 - 3000 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.31% to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased. The spot prices in some markets rose, and the raw material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased [19]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation boosted market confidence, and the supply - side concerns increased. The demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the Philippine policy and the domestic demand recovery [19]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - The rebar main contract fell 0.09% to 3079 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.15% to 3215 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts and trading volumes of both decreased [21]. - The Sino - US trade tariff reduction may boost market confidence, and the short - term plate demand and exports may strengthen, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [22]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore main contract (I2509) fell 0.56% to 714.50 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand may peak and decline, and the inventory is slightly reduced [23]. - The Sino - US negotiation boosted the market, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro - situation [23]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - The glass spot price remained unchanged, and the inventory increased. The soda ash spot price was stable, and the supply decreased slightly, and the inventory was high [24][25]. - The glass futures price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash futures price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [25]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The manganese silicon main contract fell 0.95% to 5810 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.43% to 5612 yuan/ton. The demand for both is expected to weaken, and the supply of ferrosilicon increased [26][27][29]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to stop falling and fluctuate, and the ferrosilicon price may continue to face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][29]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.08% to 8230 yuan/ton. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The downstream production is restricted [30]. - The industrial silicon price may continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [30][31]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - The rubber price rebounded due to the Sino - US negotiation. The butadiene rubber rose sharply. Thailand plans to postpone rubber tapping [33]. - The tire factory's operating rate decreased, and the rubber inventory increased. It is recommended to operate short - term and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [33][34][35]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, while INE crude oil futures fell. The gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories in the port decreased [36][37][38]. - The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and the OPEC may increase production in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [38]. 3.4.3 Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 21 yuan/ton to 2291 yuan/ton. The supply pressure increased, and the demand weakened. The price is expected to decline [39]. - It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities [39]. 3.4.4 Urea - The urea 09 contract remained unchanged at 1897 yuan/ton. The export news impact is marginalized, and the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season [40]. - It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and wait and see for non - holders [40]. 3.4.5 Styrene - The styrene 06 contract rose 427 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The cost increased, and the supply was low, and the downstream demand weakened [41]. - The styrene price rebound should be treated with caution [41]. 3.4.6 PVC - The PVC09 contract rose 1 yuan to 4837 yuan/ton. The cost was stable, the supply was high, and the demand was weak [42]. - The short - term PVC price may rebound, but the medium - term is expected to be weak and fluctuate [42]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 47 yuan to 4349 yuan/ton. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, and the terminal demand has improvement expectations [43]. - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities [43]. 3.4.8 PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 40 yuan to 4750 yuan/ton. The supply was in the maintenance season, and the terminal demand had improvement expectations [44]. - The PTA processing fee has support, but the absolute price may face risks [44]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6708 yuan/ton. The supply was in the maintenance season, and the terminal demand had improvement expectations [45][46]. - The PX is expected to de - stock in the second quarter, but the short - term valuation is high and risks should be noted [46]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price rose, but the upward space of valuation is limited. The supply will increase in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. - The short - term PE price may be affected by supply, and the medium - term is expected to fluctuate [47]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price rose slightly, and the supply had no new capacity in May, and the demand was in the off - season [48]. - The PP price is expected to fluctuate weakly in May, and it is recommended to track the LL - PP spread [48]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - The domestic pig price was mainly stable, and the supply and demand were in a game. The short - term price fluctuation is limited, and the pressure is accumulated [50]. - It is recommended to short on rallies and wait and see in the short term [50]. 3.5.2 Eggs - The egg price mostly rose, and the supply pressure was large. The short - term price may be stable with some fluctuations [51]. - It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The overnight US soybean rose, and the domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly. The supply of US and domestic soybeans is expected to be large in the short term, and the valuation is low [52][53]. - The US soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward breakthrough needs additional stimulation [53]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased in April, and the production increased in May, and the export decreased. The US soybean oil may be supported by policies [54]. - The oils and fats may face downward pressure in the medium term, but the short - term may fluctuate or be slightly bullish [55]. 3.5.5 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly, and the international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season [56]. - The domestic sugar price may maintain a high - level shock in the short term, but the downward risk increases in the long term [57]. 3.5.6 Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly, and the USDA report was mixed. The domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59]. - The short - term cotton price may be boosted, and the future focus is on the marginal change of inventory [59].