Longi(SH:601012)2025-05-14 03:09Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [4] - Industry View: Attractive [4] - Price Target: Rmb28.94 [4] Core Insights - LONGi expects a 10% global demand growth in 2025 under an optimistic scenario, with uncertain domestic demand in the second half of 2025 [2][7] - The company anticipates single-digit increases in Europe and the US, while robust demand is expected from emerging markets in the Middle East and India [2] - Oversupply may persist until a turning point, potentially in 4Q25 or 1Q26, as industry players navigate around profit break-even levels [2][7] - Despite mild demand and large supply, significant fluctuations in average selling prices (ASP) are not expected, indicating a more rational industry environment [2][7] - Financing channels are tightening, leading to rising financing costs across the industry [2] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - LONGi's cell production facility in Malaysia is capable of supplying the US market, which currently lacks solar cell supply, with anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) tariff rates at approximately 41% [2][7] - As of the end of 2024, LONGi acknowledged a valid cell capacity of 60GW (TOPCon and BC), with BC Gen II capacity projected to reach 50GW by the end of 2025 following capacity upgrades [2] Shipment Performance - In 1Q25, BC module shipments reached 4.3GW, driven by a rush in installations, particularly in the distributed solar sector, comprising 1.2GW of BC Gen II and 3.1GW of BC Gen I [3]