贵金属日报：黄金跌势暂缓，目前仍陷震荡格局之中-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices may temporarily maintain a volatile pattern due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies and inflation expectations [9] - Silver prices show a slightly stronger trend than gold under the current risk sentiment, and the gold-silver ratio may decline in the near future, but a neutral attitude is still recommended for the absolute price of silver [9] Market News and Important Data - On May 13, 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4%. The core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% long-term target [2] - Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates after the CPI report, saying the stock market would soar [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will bring back pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other strategic industries, so the short-term agreement between China and the US in Geneva does not mean the end of future trade disputes [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 760.80 yuan/gram and closed at 767.68 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 625,489 lots, and the open interest was 214,581 lots [3] - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,130 yuan/kg and closed at 8,219 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 445,790 lots, and the open interest was 188,738 lots [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.45%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.47%, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 883 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 37 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 833,063 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 188 lots, and the short positions increased by 254 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,182,017 lots, down 3.91% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the gold ETF position was 736.51 tons, down 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,999.75 tons, down 29.70 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the price difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and Au(T+d) was 0.81 yuan/gram, down 3.05 yuan/gram from the previous trading day. The price difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and Ag(T+d) was 38 yuan/kg, down 10 yuan/kg from the previous trading day [7] - On May 13, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 19.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -332.50 yuan/kg [7] - On May 13, 2025, the price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was about 93.40, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of the foreign market was 98.85, down 2.37% from the previous trading day [7] Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 76,248 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 522,642 kg, up 9.34% from the previous trading day [8] - On May 13, 2025, the delivery volume of gold was 17,048 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,300 kg [8]