新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝价格上涨与成本下跌难持续-20250514

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The meeting between China and the US led to a reduction in tariffs, but the actual consumption in the spot market has not been affected, and inventory continues to decline. However, due to factors such as pre - emptive exports and front - loaded domestic consumption, the de - stocking rate is expected to slow down, and it may be difficult for aluminum prices to break through upwards without positive stimuli. The alumina market is strongly bullish in the spot market, but with cost collapse and increasing supply expectations, the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Data - Spot Prices: On May 13, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,010 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,000 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 19,930 yuan/ton [1] - Futures Prices: On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 20,050 yuan/ton, closed at 20,005 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 140,816 lots and a position of 160,449 lots [1] - Inventory: As of May 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 601,000 tons; as of May 13, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 399,300 tons, down 2,225 tons from the previous day [1] Alumina Data - Spot Prices: On May 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,920 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 359 US dollars/ton [2] - Futures Prices: On May 13, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,856 yuan/ton, closed at 2,840 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.89%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 522,186 lots and a position of 283,672 lots [2] Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: The tariff adjustment has not affected the actual consumption in the spot market, and inventory is declining. In May, the sustainability of consumption is controversial. With the possible decline in photovoltaic consumption, the output of aluminum rods is increasing, while the output of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils is slightly decreasing [3] - Alumina: The spot market is strong, but the cost side is showing signs of collapse. The supply in May is likely to increase month - on - month, and the oversupply expectation remains unchanged [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina [4] - Arbitrage: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai Aluminum [5]