聚烯烃日报：中美关税下降，聚烯烃小幅反弹-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The significant reduction in Sino-US tariffs exceeded market expectations, leading to an improved market trading atmosphere and a slight rebound in polyolefins. Currently, the cost support for polyolefins is weak, and the production profit of PDH-made PP remains largely in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, with undetermined restart times, and there is still an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new unit of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production, and among the existing units, more PE units have been shut down, resulting in a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased slightly. The polyolefin market faces significant supply pressure. Polyolefin producers' inventories have accumulated significantly, and there is a large pressure to reduce inventory. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has decreased seasonally, while the operating rates of other industries have remained stable, with mainly rigid demand for procurement [2]. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract was 7,187 yuan/ton (+97), and the closing price of the PP main contract was 7,074 yuan/ton (+44). The spot price of LL in North China was 7,230 yuan/ton (+20), and in East China was 7,300 yuan/ton (+70). The spot price of PP in East China was 7,200 yuan/ton (+40). The basis of LL in North China was 43 yuan/ton (-77), the basis of LL in East China was 113 yuan/ton (-27), and the basis of PP in East China was 126 yuan/ton (-4) [1]. II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), and the PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). The production profit of PE from oil was 416.8 yuan/ton (-101.4), the production profit of PP from oil was 106.8 yuan/ton (-101.4), and the production profit of PP from PDH was -429.9 yuan/ton (+95.5) [1]. III. Polyolefin Non-standard Price Difference - No specific data on polyolefin non-standard price differences are provided in the report. IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profit of LL was -187.6 yuan/ton (-20.0), the import profit of PP was -301.1 yuan/ton (+0.0), and the export profit of PP was 26.0 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The operating rate of the agricultural film industry downstream of PE was 19.4% (-4.0%), the operating rate of the packaging film industry downstream of PE was 47.6% (-0.3%), the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry downstream of PP was 44.8% (-0.2%), and the operating rate of the BOPP film industry downstream of PP was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1]. VI. Polyolefin Inventories - Polyolefin producers' inventories have accumulated significantly, and there is a large pressure to reduce inventory, but no specific inventory data are provided [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter-period: None [3].