首轮提降开启，市场信心受挫

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is pessimistic, with both showing an oscillating downward trend. Glass production is decreasing, but due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, inventory is piling up. Soda ash production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but the supply remains abundant, and the demand improvement space is limited [1] - Market analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with strong pessimism. In the spot market, the Shahe market was weak, the East China market had a narrow - range adjustment, the Central China market's prices were weak, the South China market's prices were stable for now, and the Northeast market remained unchanged. Overall, the shipment was average, mainly for external sales [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the transaction prices were flexible. The daily production of soda ash decreased, with an operating rate of 75.45% [1] - Supply - demand and logic - Glass: Recently, glass production has been on a downward trend. However, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, the replenishment intensity and sustainability are weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for inventory clearance [1] - Soda ash: Affected by increased plant maintenance, soda ash production has declined recently but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, the demand improvement space for soda ash is limited, and the inventory clearance pressure is still large [1] - Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] Group 2: Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market for silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is sluggish, with continuous increases in maintenance. The production of both is affected by industry profits and is at a low level, but the demand has certain resilience. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers suppresses prices, while the low - level manganese ore port inventory supports the alloy cost. The ferrosilicon price is currently dragged down by costs [3] - Market analysis - Silicomanganese: The market expectation has been weak recently. A large - scale silicomanganese enterprise in Chongqing decided to shut down 2 furnaces for maintenance. The daily average production of silicomanganese this week was 22,065 tons, with a theoretical weekly production of 154,455 tons. The silicomanganese futures market oscillated strongly. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated, with few quotes. The price in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market followed the black - goods sector, rising and then falling. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic - Silicomanganese: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continues to decline and is at a low level over the years. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for silicomanganese. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. However, the low - level manganese ore port inventory and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices support the alloy cost. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: In the context of enterprise losses, ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for ferrosilicon. The manufacturers' inventory is continuously decreasing, and the downstream enterprises' inventory is at a low level. The ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively abundant, and the short - term price is dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black - goods sector [3] - Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4]