尿素日报：尿素自律出口数量低于市场预期-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for urea, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The self - regulated urea export volume is lower than market expectations. Currently in the traditional urea demand peak season, agricultural demand is gradually increasing, industrial demand is stable, and production is at a high level. With the implementation of export policies, export demand is expected to increase [1][2] Summaries by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Involves figures on weekly urea production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers figures on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [17][18][21] 4. Urea FOB Prices and Export Profits - Comprises figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][26][30] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Contains figures on compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][48][49]