宏观点评：兼评美国4月CPI：关税下降对美国经济和通胀的影响-20250514

Economic Indicators - The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, matching expectations and previous values, also the lowest since April 2021[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%[2] Tariff Impact - Recent tariff reductions have decreased the average US tariff rate from 28% to approximately 18%[5] - Bloomberg model estimates show that the impact on US GDP from tariff reductions has decreased from 3.0 percentage points to 1.5 percentage points, while the inflation impact has reduced from 1.7 percentage points to 0.9 percentage points[5] - Yale model estimates indicate a GDP impact reduction from 1.1 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points and a slight inflation impact decrease from 1.6 percentage points to 1.4 percentage points[5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively, while the Dow Jones index fell by 0.6%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.47% after initially rising[4] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain unchanged, with a projected two cuts in 2025, the first expected in September[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing uncertainties in tariff negotiations and economic conditions[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in June is considered low, and expectations for a July cut should be tempered[6]