5月信用策略：信用行情由短及长展开

Group 1 - The core factors influencing the bond market in April were overseas factors and policy expectations, with a significant decline in the 10-year treasury yield, which dropped 18 basis points to 1.63% in the first three trading days of the month [1][9] - Credit performance in April was weaker than interest rates, with short-term credit outperforming long-term credit; the 1-year city investment bond spread decreased by 5-7 basis points, while longer-term spreads expanded [2][10] - The credit market is expected to face challenges in May, with the 3-year credit spread and the downward pressure on long-term credit being the main obstacles for the credit market's transmission [3][16] Group 2 - Seasonal trends indicate that credit bond supply typically decreases in May, while wealth management scale usually increases, providing some support for credit spreads [4][22] - The tightening of financing policies and stricter issuance reviews are expected to limit the supply of city investment bonds and industrial bonds in the short term [4][22] - The outlook for the credit market suggests that as monetary easing occurs, short-term credit rates will decline, which may restore the slope of the yield curve and provide protection for long-term rates [5][23]