尿素：出口政策较为温和，中期进入震荡格局

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The export policy for urea is relatively mild, and the market will enter a volatile pattern in the medium term [1]. - The urea futures market is expected to show a pattern of long - short game and oscillation, with support at the bottom and limited upside space due to policy control [3]. - Next week, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue to decline [2]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) remained unchanged at 1,897 yuan/ton, the settlement price increased by 12 yuan/ton to 1,903 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 33,071 hands to 299,239 hands, the open interest increased by 8,127 hands to 275,098 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2,149 tons to 7,049 tons, and the trading volume increased by 131,731 ten - thousand yuan to 1,138,628 ten - thousand yuan. The Shandong regional basis increased by 10 to 83, and the UR09 - UR01 spread increased by 3 to 99 [1]. - Spot Market: The factory prices of major urea manufacturers remained unchanged. The trading price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, and the price in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,890 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 85.50%, and the daily output decreased by 2,400 tons to 197,170 tons [1]. Industry News - As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 0.1261 million tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.58%. The inventory of some provinces increased, while that of most provinces decreased. Due to strong short - term speculative behavior of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue to decline next week [2]. - The export policy has been temporarily implemented. The self - regulated export volume of urea by relevant associations this year (until April 2026) is about 2 million tons, and the export rhythm and time are adjusted to ensure domestic market stability and prevent excessive concentration of exports [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].