光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250514

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices fluctuated widely on Tuesday, with the trend rising first and then falling. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 1,897 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.32%. The spot market prices in some regions continued to rise. The supply of urea decreased significantly, with the daily output on May 13th at 192,800 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons from the previous day. The demand side followed up cautiously. The export news may suppress market sentiment, and the futures market sentiment may decline in the short term, but the subsequent uncertainty remains. The phased trend is mainly high-level consolidation [1]. - Soda ash futures prices opened higher and then weakened on Tuesday. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 1,291 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.84%. The spot market prices were mostly stable. The maintenance of soda ash plants continued, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 75.45% on May 13th. There are still maintenance plans in the middle and late May, and the supply of soda ash is expected to decline further. The demand remained weak and stable, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to unexpected maintenance or emergencies [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated downward on Tuesday. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 1,016 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.93%. The spot market prices continued to fall. The supply of glass has been temporarily stable in recent days, and the daily output of the industry remained at 155,800 tons. Glass factories mainly focused on shipping to avoid high inventory pressure. The demand side followed up cautiously. There are no obvious positive factors in the short - term glass market, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower integer mark [1]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information Urea - On May 13th, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 7,049, an increase of 2,149 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 560 [4]. - On May 13th, the daily output of the urea industry was 192,800 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 10,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on that day was 83.59%, a 3.80 - percentage - point increase from 79.79% in the same period last year [4]. - On May 13th, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,970 yuan/ton (unchanged); Henan 1,930 yuan/ton (unchanged); Hebei 1,950 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton); Anhui 1,940 yuan/ton (unchanged); Jiangsu 1,950 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton); Shanxi 1,890 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On May 13th, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,223, an increase of 117 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast volume was 1,808. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,370, a decrease of 10 from the previous trading day [6]. - On May 13th, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were stable compared to the previous day. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1,500 yuan/ton [6]. - On May 13th, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 75.45%, down from 77.57% on the previous working day [7]. - On May 13th, the average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,267 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The daily output of the industry remained at 155,800 tons [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price trends of spot goods [10][11][13]