美国4月CPI回升但不及预期，尚未体现关税影响

Inflation Data Summary - In April, the core CPI inflation rate rebounded to 0.24% from March's 0.06%, but fell short of the expected 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI increased to 0.22% in April from March's -0.05%, also below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 2.8%[1] Sector Analysis - Energy inflation improved significantly, rising to 0.67% in April from -2.39% in March, while food inflation dropped to -0.08%[1] - The core services CPI (super core services CPI) increased to 0.23% in April, driven by a recovery in transportation services[2] - Medical care prices maintained a steady growth rate of 0.51% in April, while entertainment services saw a decline of 0.29%[2] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation remains unclear, with significant effects expected to manifest around July to August[1] - If tariffs had not been increased under Trump's administration, core inflation would likely have continued its previously expected moderate downward trend[1] - The recent trade negotiations have led to a reduction in the expected tariff impact on inflation from 1.1-2.2 percentage points to 0.5-1 percentage points[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The April inflation data suggests that, excluding tariff factors, the underlying inflation trend remains moderately downward, supporting the expectation of a potential rate cut in July[5] - The Federal Reserve's current stance is cautious, with a focus on upcoming employment data to inform future rate decisions[6] - The overall forecast anticipates 2-3 rate cuts throughout the year, each by 25 basis points[6]