国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250514

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are subject to wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations affected by macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Coke is facing a first - round price cut and will fluctuate widely, while coking coal will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Steam coal will show a weakening trend with increased coal mine inventory [2][18]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly with the boost of macro - expectations [2][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the futures contract 12509 was 714.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.56%); the position increased by 9,557 to 714,025 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The basis for 12505 against Super Special decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the 12509 - 12601 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [5]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,079 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.88%), with a trading volume of 1,930,069 hands and a position decrease of 29,285 hands. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.78%), with a trading volume of 660,865 hands and a position decrease of 29,461 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. The basis for RB2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton, and for HC2510 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [8]. - Macro and Industry News: On May 8, steel production data showed a decrease in rebar production by 9.85 tons and an increase in hot - rolled coil production by 1.08 tons. Total inventory increased for both, and apparent demand decreased. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of them, with China taking corresponding measures [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon - iron remained unchanged, while silicon - manganese increased by 50 yuan/ton, and manganese ore increased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The basis and spreads showed different changes [11]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Some silicon - manganese enterprises in Chongqing, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia carried out production cuts or maintenance. Some steel mills finalized procurement prices and quantities [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [14]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data. On May 13, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long - positions increased by 13,695 hands and short - positions increased by 18,191 hands; for the coke J2509 contract, long - positions increased by 74 hands and short - positions increased by 619 hands [14][15][16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Steam Coal - Fundamental Data: The previous trading day's data of steam coal ZC2506 showed an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 18 hands and a position of 0 hands [18]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price quotes for southern port's foreign - trade steam coal and domestic production areas. On May 13, both long - and short - positions of the ZC2506 contract decreased by 0 hands [19]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Logs - Fundamental Data: For different contracts of logs, there were changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions showed different trends, and basis and spreads also changed [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [24]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24].