电信运营商行业点评报告：运营商业绩显韧性，AI算力竞速启航

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The telecom operators demonstrate resilient performance with continuous revenue and profit growth despite external pressures, marking a transition from "network connection" to "intelligent connection" [1]. - The operators are benefiting significantly from the AI wave, particularly through intelligent computing business growth and value reassessment, positioning them as defensive growth assets within the AI chain [3]. - The traditional telecom business remains a major revenue source, with projected revenues for 2024 being CNY 626.8 billion for China Mobile, CNY 328.2 billion for China Telecom, and CNY 261.3 billion for China Unicom, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.8%, 3.0%, and 1.5% respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance and Growth - The telecom operators have achieved a significant milestone with cloud services exceeding CNY 100 billion, indicating a shift towards digital services [1]. - In 2024, the intelligent computing scale for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom is expected to reach 29.2, 35, and 17 EFLOPS respectively, with cloud revenues projected to be CNY 100.4 billion, CNY 113.9 billion, and CNY 68.6 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 20.4%, 17.1%, and 7.4% [3][4]. - The international business is also accelerating, with revenues for 2024 expected to be CNY 22.8 billion, CNY 16.9 billion, and CNY 12.5 billion for the three operators, reflecting growth rates of 10.2%, 15.4%, and 15.2% respectively [3][4]. Capital Expenditure and Investment - The capital expenditure (Capex) for 2025 is projected to be CNY 151.2 billion for China Mobile, CNY 55 billion for China Unicom, and CNY 83.6 billion for China Telecom, with reductions of 7.8%, 10.4%, and 10.6% respectively [3][4]. - Despite the reduction in Capex, the operators are committed to increasing investments in computing power, indicating a strong determination to transform and enhance core competitiveness [3][4]. Financial Stability and Dividends - The operators have consistently reported revenue and profit growth, with total revenue exceeding CNY 1.9 trillion and net profit reaching CNY 180.4 billion in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 5.9% [3][4]. - The dividend payout remains high, with a total proposed dividend exceeding CNY 60 billion for 2024, and payout ratios of 73%, 72%, and 54.7% for China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom respectively, with commitments to gradually increase these ratios [3][4].