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万孚生物:2024年报、2025年一季报点评:四大业务运营稳健,海外业务持续突破-20250514

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5][24]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.065 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.85%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 562 million yuan, up 15.18% year-on-year [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 7.06% compared to the previous year, with a net profit of 189 million yuan, down 13.37% [2][4]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in revenue and net profit, with projections of 3.525 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, a 15% increase, and a net profit of 647 million yuan, also a 15.2% increase [4]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024 Financials: - Total revenue: 3,065 million yuan - Net profit: 562 million yuan - Earnings per share: 1.17 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 19 times [4][5] - 2025 Projections: - Expected revenue: 3,525 million yuan - Expected net profit: 647 million yuan - Expected earnings per share: 1.34 yuan - Projected price-to-earnings ratio: 16 times [4][5] Business Segment Performance - Chronic Disease Management Testing: Revenue reached 1.369 billion yuan, growing by 22.38% year-on-year, driven by market share gains in domestic emergency departments and international expansion [9]. - Infectious Disease Testing: Revenue was 1.042 billion yuan, up 9.5%, with increased market share in respiratory disease testing during peak seasons [9]. - Prenatal and Genetic Testing: Revenue of 294 million yuan, a 9.97% increase, supported by a dual-driven strategy focusing on market share and product innovation [9]. - Drug Abuse Testing: Revenue declined to 286 million yuan, down 13.39%, due to intensified competition in the North American market, although small client orders increased [9]. Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a total valuation of 13.6 billion yuan for the company, leading to a target price of 28 yuan per share, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis [9].