沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250514

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that although the US tariff increase on China has decreased, due to the approaching traditional consumption off - season and the increase in China's electrolytic copper social inventory compared to last week, the price of Shanghai copper may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Macro - economic Situation - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including a reduction of $5.8 trillion in spending over the next decade, a $5 - trillion increase in the debt ceiling, and a $4 - billion reduction in government spending. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by $163 billion in 2027. The manufacturing and service PMI and employment data in April were better than expected, and the consumer - end inflation annual rate in April was 2.3%, lower than expected, which postponed the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation to October/December [4]. Copper Supply and Production - Mine Production: The Escondida mine's copper production in March increased by 18.9% year - on - year to 120,600 tons. The state - owned miner Codelco's copper production in August increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons. The copper production of COMEX copper futures active contract showed an upward trend, and the total inventory also increased [2]. - Project Investment: Jincheng plans to acquire 80% of the equity of ZIEL company in Colombia for $10 million and invest $2.3 billion in the Lacceaf gold - silver mine project. The Alacran mine project has an investment budget of $4.204 billion, with a 2 - year construction period [2]. - Production Changes: Peru's Antamina copper mine is gradually resuming production. Poland's KGHM's Sierra Corda copper mine in Chile and Kazakhstan's copper mine in the Ural region suspended production. Some copper smelters in China and abroad have production changes, such as the suspension of production for maintenance, new production capacity, etc., which may affect the production and import of copper concentrates, blister copper, and electrolytic copper [4]. Copper Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On May 13, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 78,090 yuan, down 170 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 90,876 lots, a decrease of 34,221 lots. The open interest was 181,940 lots, a decrease of 5,790 lots. The inventory was 29,157 tons, an increase of 9,073 tons [2]. - Spot Price: The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,155 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 65 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan [2]. - International Copper Market: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was $9,599.5, up $79 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX copper futures active contract was $4.7085, up $0.05 from the previous day [2]. Downstream Market - The new orders and long - term order executions of refined copper rod enterprises have significantly decreased, resulting in a decrease in the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods has increased. The raw material and finished - product inventories of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased, and those of recycled copper rod enterprises have increased [4]. - Due to the expected suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration and domestic economic stimulus measures, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of downstream copper enterprises may decline [4].