商品期货早班车-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as US inflation data, trade policy changes, and Fed policy expectations. Different commodity futures have diverse trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Overnight prices fluctuated slightly higher. US inflation cooled in April, with CPI at 2.3% and core CPI at 2.8%. Domestic gold ETFs had an outflow of 3.9 tons, and COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1 ton. Suggest avoiding in the short - term due to trade - war easing, and considering long - term building of long positions. For silver, suggest shorting on rebounds or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - Silver: Various inventory data changed, with some increases and decreases. Trade - war easing led to a drop in the gold - silver ratio below 100. Suggest shorting on rebounds or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - Copper: Prices continued to strengthen. US inflation cooling and Trump's call for Fed rate cuts weakened the dollar, supporting metal prices. Suggest buying on dips [2]. - Aluminum: The 2506 contract of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.48%. Supply increased slightly, and demand also improved. Suggest buying on dips as the dollar weakens and export prospects may improve [2]. - Alumina: The 2509 contract fell 0.11%. Supply decreased due to maintenance and production cuts, while demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. Suggest shorting on rallies as the long - term supply - demand surplus remains [3]. - Lead: The 2506 contract fell 0.15%. Supply tightened as regenerative lead production became unprofitable, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to range - bound with a slightly higher bottom [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The 2506 contract fell. Supply was strong and demand was weak. Suggest waiting and watching as the downward driving force is limited [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The 2507 contract fell. Supply was high and demand was mixed, with domestic new - energy vehicle sales showing different trends. Suggest holding short positions or taking short - term profits, expecting short - term fluctuations or a small rebound and long - term shorting on rallies [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The PS2506 contract fell. The market was affected by production - cut rumors. Suggest taking profits on long positions and watching the enterprise's willingness to deliver at a price around 40,000 yuan [4]. - Tin: Prices oscillated strongly. US inflation cooling and a weaker dollar supported prices. Suggest buying on dips as demand is relatively optimistic [4]. Black Industry - Rebar: The 2510 contract rebounded. Inventory decreased, and the market was in a relatively balanced state. Suggest holding short positions and considering spread trading [5]. - Iron Ore: The 2509 contract rebounded. Supply and demand were neutral - strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. Suggest trading within the range of 710 - 740 [5]. - Coking Coal: The 2509 contract rebounded. Inventory was at a high level, and the market was relatively loose. Suggest waiting and watching within the range of 850 - 900 [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: US soybeans are expected to be range - bound, with short - term rebounds and mid - term drivers depending on US soybean production. Domestic soybeans are weak in the short - term and follow the international market in the mid - term [6]. - Corn: The 2507 contract continued to decline. Supply - demand tightened marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Sugar: The 09 contract rose. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term and turn bearish later [6]. - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and domestic prices oscillated higher. Suggest waiting and watching with a range - bound strategy [6]. - Palm Oil: Prices rose. Supply is in the seasonal growth phase, and demand improved. Short - term rebound and mid - term weakness are expected [6]. - Eggs: The 2506 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply is high, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Hogs: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply is increasing, and prices are expected to decline resistantly [6]. - Apples: The price of the main contract fell. New - season production is a concern due to weather, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but may face downward pressure later [7]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is mixed. Short - term oscillation is expected to be strong, and long - term shorting on rallies is suggested [8]. - PVC: The V09 contract rose. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Suggest hedging after the premium recovers [8]. - PTA: Prices are affected by cost and demand. Near - term performance is strong, and long - term shorting on rallies is considered [8]. - Rubber: The 2509 contract rose. Prices are affected by macro factors and supply - demand. Suggest waiting and watching or shorting around 15,500 [9]. - Glass: The FG09 contract rose slightly. Supply is large, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and hedging is suggested [9]. - PP: The main contract rebounded. Supply and demand are both increasing. Short - term oscillation is expected to be strong, and long - term shorting on rallies is suggested [9]. - MEG: Supply decreased, and inventory declined. Prices are expected to be strong in the near - term [9]. - Crude Oil: Prices rose. Supply pressure is large, and shorting on rallies is the main strategy, with the short - term oscillation range at Brent $60 - 70 per barrel [9]. - Styrene: The main contract rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may improve. Short - term oscillation is expected to be strong, and positive spread trading is suggested [10]. Shipping - European Line Container Shipping: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract hit the daily limit. Demand on the US line recovered, but that on the European line was mild. Supply on the US line will be adjusted, and more large ships are entering the European line. Suggest 8 - 10 positive spread trading and being cautious about chasing the 06 contract [11].