欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第79期）-20250514

Report Overview - Report Title: EU Carbon Market Briefing (2025 Issue 79) [1] - Release Date: May 14, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Tang Huiting, Senior Analyst at Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of the EU carbon market are showing a weakening trend, and the upward trend of EUA has temporarily paused [2] - In the short - term, EUA is overbought, and there is still a risk of decline in the medium - term, with an upper resistance level of €75 [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - On May 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.69 euros/ton (up 0.96%), and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.4 [2][3] Secondary Market - On May 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.9 euros/ton (down 0.69%), and the trading volume was 29,600 lots (down 0.43) [2][3] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Before the negotiation, Zelensky publicly provoked Putin, reducing the possibility of a meeting between the two leaders [2] - Drought in Northern Europe will support European electricity prices, and future rainfall is limited [2] - The US launched a new round of energy export sanctions against Iran, pushing up crude oil prices [2] Bearish Factors - The team responsible for the European Green Deal will be renamed the team for "Clean Transition and Health", indicating that this milestone policy in von der Leyen's first term will be downplayed [2][3] - Temperatures in the southwest of Europe are warming, and wind and photovoltaic power generation resources will increase [2][3] Market Data Tables EUA Auction Information - On May 13, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 23,267 tons, the auction price was 71.69 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 324.55 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 68.55 million euros, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.4 [3] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On May 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.90 euros/ton (down 0.69% from the previous day), the trading volume was 29,600 lots (down 0.43), and the open interest was unchanged [3] - On May 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.81 euros/ton (down 0.69% from the previous day), the trading volume decreased by 1,241 lots, the spot carbon cost for container shipping was 12.81 US dollars/TEU, and the cost accounted for 1.10% of the freight [3]