Nintendo Co., Ltd.：玩家之心驱动创新，迈向平台型公司

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nintendo with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 14,884.97 JPY, corresponding to a FY27 30x PE [8][18]. Core Views - Nintendo is transitioning into a platform company, leveraging its unique development model that integrates software and hardware to enhance IP value. The upcoming release of Switch 2 is expected to restore revenue and profit growth in the short term, while the establishment of a platform ecosystem will enhance third-party game supply in the medium term. Long-term, the company aims for diversified commercialization strategies to optimize revenue structure and demonstrate resilience across cycles [1][5][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nintendo has a rich history in the gaming industry, known for iconic IPs like Mario and Pokémon. The company has successfully navigated market challenges by focusing on gameplay rather than just high performance and graphics [23][18]. Revenue Structure - In FY25, hardware revenue is projected to be 473.5 billion JPY (41% of total), while software revenue is expected to be 610 billion JPY (52%). The revenue from IP-related activities remains relatively low, indicating significant potential for future growth [18][19]. Platform Strategy - The Switch has redefined the gaming console market by merging home and handheld gaming. The upcoming Switch 2 is anticipated to meet the performance demands of AAA games, with a projected revenue increase of 55% year-on-year in FY26 [3][19]. User Engagement and Profitability - Nintendo has built a robust ecosystem around its first-party games, which are crucial for user acquisition. The company’s online services are expected to enhance user engagement, with digital game sales projected to exceed 50% of total game revenue by FY25 [4][20]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Unlike competitors, Nintendo's strategy emphasizes expanding its user base through innovative gameplay experiences and diverse IP monetization channels, including theme parks and mobile services. This approach has allowed Nintendo to maintain a competitive edge in a crowded market [18][21]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for FY26, FY27, and FY28 to be 328.8 billion JPY, 577.7 billion JPY, and 684.2 billion JPY, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory supported by the platform model [6][7].