房地产重大政策点评：信阳公示现房销售制度，如何看待行业影响

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][18]. Core Viewpoints - The recent policy changes in Xinyang regarding the sale of existing homes are expected to significantly impact the industry, particularly by reducing the return on invested capital (ROIC) for real estate companies [3][10]. - The shift from a pre-sale to a current sale model will reshape the business model of the industry from a "balance sheet business" to a "profit and loss statement business" [10][13]. - While short-term adjustments are anticipated due to the policy changes, the long-term outlook remains optimistic as the industry transitions to a more sustainable financial model [13]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On May 13, Xinyang's housing authority announced measures to strengthen the management of pre-sale housing, including that new projects can only be sold after the main structure is completed, and all new land acquisitions must be sold as existing homes [3]. Financial Impact - The introduction of the current sale system is expected to lead to a significant decline in ROIC, from 12.4% to 2.9%, indicating a reduced attractiveness of the real estate business [7][9]. - The analysis suggests that if pre-sales are eliminated, companies will face either a contraction in their balance sheets or increased interest expenses, leading to a longer investment recovery period and a significant drop in internal rate of return (IRR) [4][9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term effects of the current sale system will likely result in an increase in the required profit margins for land acquisitions, as companies can no longer rely on quick turnover to maintain high ROIC [10]. - The overall industry profit margins are expected to rise, leading to a shift towards a more stable financial structure characterized by moderate leverage and profitability [10][13]. Market Response - The report anticipates that the market will initially react negatively to the policy changes, but in the medium to long term, the transition to a current sale model will stabilize housing prices and improve the industry's valuation metrics [13][11].