金融期货早班车-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives. It is recommended to buy stock index futures at low prices, with short - term IC and IM having more elasticity, and medium - to - long - term IH and IF being more attractive in valuation [3] - For treasury bond futures, in the short term, the bond price has reached a high level and is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of treasury bond futures [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures (1) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure prosperity has slightly increased, while the import and export prosperity has decreased [7] (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 13, most of the A - share four major stock indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.17% to close at 3374.87 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.13% to close at 10288.08 points, the ChiNext Index falling 0.12% to close at 2062.26 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling 0.15% to close at 1009.68 points. The market turnover was 1326 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts are 154.41, 127.07, 45.26, and 19.86 points, and - 22.41%, - 19.62%, - 10.37%, and - 6.55% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 2%, 2%, 4%, and 16% respectively [3] (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 13, most of the treasury bond futures rose, with the 2 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.03% to close at 102.35 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures falling 0.01% to close at 105.96 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.03% to close at 108.72 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.13% to close at 119.3 points [4] - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 180 billion yuan and withdrew 405 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan [4]