金融债分析手册系列之十一：八大维度解码银行年报的债市启示

Group 1: Market Trends - Bank self-operated investments will continue to be a significant source of funds for the bond market, with total asset growth for listed banks in 2024 at 7.87% for state-owned banks, 4.87% for joint-stock banks, 10.75% for city commercial banks, and 6.05% for rural commercial banks[12][14]. - The investment proportion in the bond market is expected to increase as banks adjust strategies to "invest to supplement credit," with state-owned banks' investment growth reaching 16.25% in 2024, the highest in five years[12][14]. Group 2: Credit Quality and Risks - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks in 2024 is 1.23%, 1.22%, 1.76%, and 2.80% respectively, indicating a slight increase in city commercial banks' NPLs due to aggressive expansion strategies[20][21]. - Personal retail loan quality is showing signs of deterioration, with banks like Bohai Bank and Guizhou Bank reporting increases in NPL ratios by over 1 percentage point in 2024[22]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The proportion of FVOCI accounts has significantly increased, with state-owned banks at 27.03%, joint-stock banks at 25.12%, city commercial banks at 26.87%, and rural commercial banks at 41.94%, reflecting a shift towards optimizing investment structures to benefit from bond market conditions[32]. - The reliance on bond market investments is increasing, with the investment/total asset ratios for state-owned, joint-stock, city commercial, and rural commercial banks at 28.73%, 30.90%, 38.44%, and 35.09% respectively in 2024[31]. Group 4: Liability Management - The cost of liabilities remains rigid, with the trend of increasing fixed-term deposits continuing, particularly in city commercial banks where the proportion of fixed-term deposits increased by 4.6 percentage points[42][43]. - The deposit structure is shifting towards "strong retail, weak corporate," with personal deposits for state-owned banks at 59.86%, joint-stock banks at 33.54%, city commercial banks at 46.10%, and rural commercial banks at 68.99%[42].