甲醇周报：等待反弹后的沽空机会-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests waiting for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of methanol contract 09. The reasons are that the macro - sentiment - driven rally is unsustainable, the supply of domestic coal - based methanol is recovering rapidly despite the uncertainty of Iranian imports, and the relative valuation of methanol is not low. Therefore, methanol lacks the potential for long - positions [4][42]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review From May 6th to May 13th, methanol prices oscillated upwards after the holiday. This was due to better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiations improving market risk appetite and the potential import shortfall from Iran in May as some Iranian plants were under - loaded or under maintenance [4][9][42]. 2. Basis and Spread The basis in East China weakened slightly. The basis in East China decreased from 181 yuan/ton on May 6th to 139 yuan/ton on May 13th. The 09 - 01 spread remained stable, changing from - 69 yuan/ton on May 6th to - 63 yuan/ton on May 13th [10]. 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation High profits have accelerated the return of domestic coal - based methanol production. As of May 13th, the prices of Qinhuangdao and Datong thermal coal decreased. By May 8th, the weekly operating rate of coal - based methanol enterprises reached 81.46%, up 1.66 percentage points week - on - week and 4.95 percentage points year - on - year, while the weekly operating rate of gas - based methanol enterprises was 49.57%, flat week - on - week and up 6.78 percentage points year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Inventory Both port and domestic inventories of methanol are low. Iranian imports may decline in late May, potentially causing a temporary shortage of port supplies. As of May 8th, the inventory in East China ports was 23.86 million tons, up 0.94 million tons week - on - week and down 8.74 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in South China ports was 17.65 million tons, up 5.71 million tons week - on - week and up 5.43 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in the Northwest region was 19.2 million tons, up 2.1 million tons week - on - week and down 6.8 million tons year - on - year [21]. 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand The profit of coastal MTO plants is relatively high, while that of domestic plants is poor. The MTO plant of Jiangsu Sierbang is expected to restart in late May, and most other coastal external - procurement plants have room for capacity improvement. As of May 8th, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 75.99%, down 2.08 percentage points week - on - week and down 6.84 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of external - procurement methanol - to - olefins enterprises was 67.17%, up 2.66 percentage points week - on - week and down 16.66 percentage points year - on - year [26]. 4.2 Traditional Demand The traditional downstream sectors of methanol, such as acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, have poor profits, and the traditional demand is generally weak, providing little positive support [33]. 5. Summary and Outlook The market situation is the same as in the market review. The view is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and the reasons are consistent with the core view of the report. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [42][43].