瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250514

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing. Coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm increases, and overall production will continue to rise. Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting purchases has improved, the spot premium is high, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, entering the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance. [3] - Technically, the price stands above the MA10 with support below, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. [3] - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,052 lots, down 3,743 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,520 lots, up 11,528 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,600 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons, down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,950 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,840 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,970 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan. [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 130 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 27.34 US dollars/ton, up 0.03 US dollars. [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. [3] - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons, up 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the completed housing area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 11.67%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 17.07%, up 0.41%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Internationally, the unadjusted CPI in the US in April increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. US President Trump pressured the Fed Chairman to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October. [3] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Villeroy said that since trade tensions have not intensified inflation in the region, the central bank may cut interest rates again by summer. Governing Council member Rehn pointed out that increased defense spending does not necessarily push up inflation. [3] - Domestically, China adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days. [3]