Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-14 09:18Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 2.63%, hitting a record high, supported by the optimistic sentiment of the proposed revision of the US biofuel policy. The South American harvest is gradually being realized, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, the USDA's forecast of the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 295 million bushels, significantly lower than market expectations, is bullish for US soybeans. In the domestic market, as imported soybeans arrive at ports in a concentrated manner this month, the oil mill operation rate has gradually recovered, and the supply will shift from tight to loose, suppressing market prices. For rapeseed meal, the direct import pressure has significantly decreased, but the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing prices. For rapeseed oil, the supply - side pressure has weakened due to the decline in rapeseed imports in the first quarter, but high inventory pressure continues to restrict market prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9438 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2509 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 729.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 22 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5368 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) is 177 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) is 197 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract position is 316130 lots, up 10690 lots; rapeseed meal main contract position is 630254 lots, down 7170 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 34791 lots, up 47 lots; rapeseed meal is - 39584 lots, up 10578 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 1727 sheets; rapeseed meal is 31278 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9480 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9477.5 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - Import cost price: Rapeseed (import) is 5271.16 yuan/ton, up 125.4 yuan. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.79, up 0.1. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 106 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is - 79 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. - Substitute spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8800 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. - Rapeseed import quantity: The total rapeseed import quantity for the current month is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons. - Import rapeseed crushing profit: - 107 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 25 million tons, down 5 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import quantities: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity for the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; rapeseed meal import quantity for the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons. - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 16.05 million tons, up 2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.9 million tons, down 0.64 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 45.42 million tons, down 0.17 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 25.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons. - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.72 million tons, down 3.11 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 5.01 million tons, down 0.34 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The current - month feed production is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons. - Edible vegetable oil production: The current - month edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail: The current - month catering revenue is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The direct import pressure of rapeseed meal has significantly decreased, and the later supply is likely to be tight. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing market prices. Driven by the strengthening of US soybeans, the rapeseed meal futures price rebounded slightly today, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The new - year supply - demand pattern has improved, and the long - term price is under pressure. Driven by the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy and the continuous recovery of international crude oil, the domestic oil market is boosted. However, the palm oil producing areas are entering the seasonal production - increasing season, and palm oil is still under pressure. In the domestic market, the decline in rapeseed imports in the first quarter has weakened the supply - side pressure of rapeseed oil, and the increase in tariffs has significantly increased the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil, restricting future imports. However, high inventory pressure continues to restrict market prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty. Driven by the strengthening of external oils, rapeseed oil closed higher in a volatile manner, generally maintaining a range - bound trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by myagricultural.com on Monday, and the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].