瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - L2509 rose 2.66% to close at 7,339 yuan/ton. Supply-wise, last week's PE production decreased by 0.95% month-on-month to 648,900 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 0.77 percentage points month-on-month to 84.07%. Demand-wise, the average operating rate of downstream products decreased by 0.20% month-on-month, continuing the seasonal decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 8.27% month-on-month to 527,800 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.99% month-on-month to 617,700 tons, with little inventory pressure. In May, the PE industry had concentrated maintenance. As the shutdown capacity increased this week, production and capacity utilization were expected to continue the downward trend. The downstream shed film and mulch film were in the off-season; the demand for packaging film was continuously affected by tariffs, with the order days decreasing month-on-month; the rigid demand for PE pipes was limited, and the demand was lower than in previous years. The reduction of US tariffs on China was beneficial for the export of terminal plastic products. In terms of cost, with the easing of trade tensions, international oil prices had recently fluctuated and risen. The L2509 still showed a bullish trend on the chart, testing the resistance around 7,400 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene was 7,339 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,259 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,480 yuan/ton, up 143 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,339 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan. The trading volume was 564,915 lots, up 109,842 lots; the open interest was 529,130 lots, down 7,869 lots. The price difference between the January and May contracts was -221 yuan, down 9 yuan. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 382,728 lots, down 4,214 lots; the short positions were 426,366 lots, down 7,335 lots; the net long positions were -43,638 lots, up 3,121 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,416.09 yuan/ton, up 100.87 yuan; in East China, it was 7,497.8 yuan/ton, up 124.63 yuan. The basis was 77.09 yuan, down 51.13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.32 US dollars per barrel, up 0.56 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 575.5 US dollars per ton, up 6.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars per ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 781 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.32 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 47.59%, down 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, up 0.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 19.44%, down 3.95 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 15.11%, up 2.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.52%, up 0.88 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 12.42%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 12.41%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States from 12:01 on May 14, 2025. The tariff rate stipulated in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff on US imports was suspended for 90 days; the tariff measures stipulated in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped. From May 2 to 8, China's total polyethylene production was 648,900 tons, a decrease of 0.95% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 84.07%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous period. From May 1 to 8, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.20% from the previous period. As of May 9, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 617,700 tons, an increase of 0.99% from the previous period; as of May 14, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise sample warehouses was 527,800 tons, a decrease of 8.27% from the previous period [2].