Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 1.23%. Supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices remain under pressure, but due to positive market sentiment, the short - term trend will be a volatile rebound. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate was strong with a daily increase of 1.27%. Supply is at a high level with relatively large pressure, and demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, overseas risks have eased, market sentiment has warmed up, and in the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore continued to rise with a daily increase of 2.43%. Supported by the repair of the discount due to improved market sentiment, the price is strong in the short - term. But ore demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and the fundamentals are likely to weaken. Be cautious about bullishness at high levels [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In the economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva, both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also took corresponding actions. China's counter - measures against the US over fentanyl remain effective [6]. - Xinyang will implement spot - house sales for newly - developed commercial housing on newly - transferred land. The measure is for public consultation from May 6 to May 15, 2025 [7]. - In early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 220,500 tons (a 0.2% daily increase). Pig iron output was 19.9 million tons, with an average daily output of 199,000 tons (a 1.6% daily increase). Steel output was 20.83 million tons, with an average daily output of 208,300 tons (an 8.4% daily decrease) [7]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, etc., and their price changes are presented, along with the prices and changes of iron ore - related products such as 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, etc. [8] 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest changes of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore are shown. For example, the rebar main contract closed at 3,127 with a 1.23% increase, trading volume of 2,134,942, and a decrease in open interest of 39,651 [10]. 4. Related Charts - Include price trend charts of steel and iron ore, inventory charts of steel and iron ore (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore at 45 ports), and charts related to steel mill production (such as blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making steel mill ratio) [8][9][12] 5.后市研判 - For rebar, supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices are under pressure, but short - term trend is a volatile rebound due to positive market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, supply is at a high level, demand is weakening, and fundamentals are weak. Prices are under pressure, but short - term prices will oscillate strongly due to improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and fundamentals are likely to weaken. Although the short - term trend is strong, be cautious about bullishness at high levels [38].
市场情绪偏暖,钢矿强势上行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-14 09:42